ハリス、トランプ両氏の支持率なお拮抗　テレビ討論会直前

【ワシントンＡＦＰ＝時事】米国で８日に発表された世論調査結果によると、大統領選の民主党候補カマラ・ハリス副大統領と共和党候補のドナルド・トランプ前大統領の支持率は依然、拮抗（きっこう）している。両氏は１０日、場合によっては最初で最後となるテレビ討論会を控えている。（写真は、米国のカマラ・ハリス副大統領〈左〉とドナルド・トランプ前大統領）
　米紙ニューヨーク・タイムズとシエナ大学研究所による共同世論調査では、全米の支持率はトランプ氏が４８％で、４７％のハリス氏を１ポイント上回った。ただ、この差は誤差の範囲内。
　大統領選は、ほぼすべての州で勝者総取り方式が採用されているため、得票総数ではなく、一握りの激戦州の結果が勝敗を左右する。
　調査では、ハリス氏はウィスコンシン、ミシガン、ペンシルベニア州では僅差でトランプ氏をリード。他の激戦４州、ネバダ、ジョージア、ノースカロライナ、アリゾナ州では互角だった。
　ＣＢＳニュースと調査会社ユーガブの世論調査によると、ミシガンとウィスコンシン州ではハリス氏が１ポイント差でトランプ氏を上回り、ペンシルベニア州では同点だった。
　「ゲームチェンジャー」の一つとなるのはおそらく、１０日に予定されているＡＢＣニュースによる討論会だ。両氏によるテレビ討論会は、今のところ、これ以外には予定されていない。
　トランプ氏は、アフリカ系および南アジア系、さらに女性として米国初の大統領を目指すハリス氏に対して、いつものような侮辱的・威圧的な言動を慎むよう注意する必要がある。
　一方、超短期決戦を強いられたハリス氏には、高視聴率を利用して米国民の心をつかむことが求められる。
　同時にハリス氏は、ほぼあらゆる話題で虚偽発言を繰り返し、相手を挑発してわざと逆上させるのを好むトランプ氏とどのように討論すれば優位に立てるかという難問も克服しなければならない。
　これまでにもトランプ氏は演説で、ハリス氏を人種差別的・性差別的な表現で嘲笑。名前をわざと間違えて発音し、「クレイジー」「マルクス主義者」などと呼んでいる。
　ハリス氏支持を表明しているピート・ブティジェッジ運輸長官はＣＮＮで、「ドナルド・トランプを相手に討論するには、超人的なレベルの集中力と忍耐力が必要とされる」と話した。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2024/09/09-17:10）

The US presidential race remains neck-and-neck according to polls released Sunday, two days before Kamala Harris and Donald Trump hold their first -- and potentially only -- televised debate.
The latest polling confirms that Trump retains locked-in support from about half of voters, despite the Republican's historic status as a convicted felon and his role in instigating the unprecedented attempt to overturn his 2020 loss to Joe Biden.
Harris, who only jumped into the race after President Biden quit in July, has rapidly transformed herself from a little-noticed vice president into a serious contender. However, the polls show she has not made a major breakthrough, leaving the race a toss-up.
A New York Times/Siena poll found that 78-year-old Trump is leading Harris nationally by 48 to 47 percent, well within the margin of error.
US presidential elections are decided by tallying the results of state-by-state contests, rather than an overall national popular vote, meaning that a tiny handful of swing states typically determine the balance.
The poll found Harris, 59, narrowly ahead in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and tied in four other swing states: Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona.
A CBS News/YouGov poll put Harris ahead by one percentage point in Michigan and Wisconsin and tied in Pennsylvania.
The election is already chaotic, with 81-year-old Biden dropping out amid concerns over his age, Trump narrowly surviving an assassin's bullet at a rally, and fears mounting that Trump will again refuse to concede if he loses in November.
However, the latest numbers confirm that each candidate retains a remarkably stable base of loyalists, almost evenly splitting the country.
One game changer could be Tuesday's ABC News debate, the only one scheduled between the two.
Trump will be under pressure to rein in his characteristic use of insults and intimidation as he stands next to a mixed-race candidate vying to become the first female president in US history.
Harris will need to use the huge viewership to connect with Americans in a way that she was unable to as vice president and has had little time to accomplish in her super-condensed campaign run.
With Trump now the oldest presidential nominee in US history, she is pitching an optimistic, forward-looking message in contrast to Trump's apocalyptic claims that the country faces terminal decline without him in the White House.
But Harris has also been accused of running on vague optimism and unity at the expense of putting out concrete policies.
She finally addressed the growing pressure late Sunday when her campaign put out a policy page, touching on subjects from unions and cost-of-living issues to health care.
- Sexist taunts -
At the same time, Harris will have to solve the conundrum of how to debate Trump, who habitually makes false statements on nearly every topic and loves to get under his opponents' skin. Biden, in his only debate against Trump before dropping his candidacy, found himself entirely unable to cope.
Already, Trump has been subjecting Harris in his speeches to racist and sexist taunts, deliberately mispronouncing her name and calling her crazy and a Marxist.
It will take almost superhuman focus and discipline to deal with Donald Trump in a debate, Harris supporter and current transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg told CNN.
The Harris campaign announced it would barnstorm battleground states after the debate, beginning in North Carolina, then Pennsylvania.
Trump held a rally in Wisconsin on Saturday where he appealed to his mostly white, working-class base with a dark speech claiming that he is struggling against a rogue regime where Democrats imported murderers, child predators and serial rapists from all over the planet.
On his Truth Social platform, he warned that once back in the White House he would impose long prison sentences on all those he said were planning cheating in November.