中国コロナ感染爆発「規制緩和以前から」示唆する農村部

【雲南（中国）ＡＦＰ＝時事】中国南部の山間部では昨年１２月、新型コロナウイルス感染症（ＣＯＶＩＤ－１９）が大流行したが、今はすでに沈静化したように見える。中国での最新の感染急増は、実は規制の大幅解除以前から起きていたという専門家たちの見解に沿うような現象だ。（写真は、同国雲南省に暮らす少数民族の布朗の人々）
　中国政府は１２月初旬、感染拡大の封じ込めを目指してきた「ゼロコロナ」政策を撤廃。一般的には、この突然の政策転換が引き金となって感染者が急増し、病院や火葬場がパンク状態になったと考える向きが強い。
　だが、ＡＦＰが今月訪れた雲南省など南部の農村地帯では、予測よりも数週間早くピークを過ぎ、流行は収まりつつあった。
　少数民族・布朗の集落が、茶畑と並んで斜面に点在する雲南省の景邁山。医師のソン・キンファン氏は、１２月２０日頃が流行のピークだったと振り返り、「感染しなかった住民は基本的にいない」と言い、自らも感染しながら働き続けたと話した。
　１月初旬にＡＦＰが訪れた東部山東省と安徽省でも、その数週間前の状態を語る村人たちの説明と比べるとそれぞれの保健所の様子は落ち着いていた。
　アジア太平洋臨床微生物・感染症学会のポール・タンバイヤ会長は、地方の集落をすでに通過しているという事実は「現在の流行の波の先端」を示唆していると指摘。１１月初旬にはすでに感染拡大が始まっていた証拠だと説明した。
　雲南省●（虫へんに馬）蟻堆郷のある病院では、新型コロナ患者向けに特設された発熱クリニックの案内板があり、「陽性ゾーン」には真っ赤なプラカードが立っていた。だが、１月中旬のある日の午後、人影の少ないその施設に新型コロナの患者はいなかった。
　中医学の医師はＡＦＰに対し、感染のピークは年明け直後で、毎日最大８０人の新型コロナ患者を受け入れていたと語った。
　しかし、ＡＦＰが訪れた地域ではマスクを着用している人は見られず、多くの人はウイルスを怖がっていなかった。
　景邁山の村のある商店の店主は、金属製のパイプで水たばこを吸いながら、新型コロナとインフルエンザは似たようなもので「冬には、どうせ風邪をひくだろう」と言った。
　また、道端で自家製の赤ワインを売っていた女性は「大勢が感染した」が、「それほど重くなかった」と言った。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2023/01/27-15:00）

Covid-19 swept swiftly through southern China's rural mountain villages last month, and the wave appears to have subsided -- supporting expert theories that the country's most recent outbreak preceded the lifting of restrictions.
China abruptly abandoned its zero-Covid policy in early December, and the explosion in cases that packed hospitals and crematoriums was widely attributed to the sudden reopening.
But in over a dozen communities visited by AFP in Yunnan province and other parts of rural China this month, the surge appears to have peaked weeks earlier than predicted.
On Yunnan's Jingmai mountain, where a handful of mostly Blang ethnic minority hamlets perch on slopes next to tea fields, doctor Zhong Qingfang pinpointed the height of infections to around December 20.
There is basically no one who hasn't been infected, she said, adding that she had to work while ill herself.
Last Wednesday, it was clear cases had ebbed as just three elderly patients sat at the entrance to Zhong's clinic, hooked up to IV drips.
Health centres visited by AFP in east China's Shandong and Anhui earlier this month also appeared less busy compared to the villagers' descriptions of what had happened just weeks before.
The fact that the virus has already passed through even small rural communities suggests the tail end of the current wave in China, said Paul Tambyah, president of the Asia Pacific Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infection.
There is good evidence that cases were beginning to rise in late November, he said.
The World Health Organization has said it believes the current outbreak started long before any easing of the zero-Covid policy.
Tambyah said that the uptick in infections was in fact the most likely explanation for the abandonment of the zero-Covid policy in early December.
- Empty clinics -
At a hospital in Yunnan's Mayidui Township, signs directed visitors toward a specially constructed fever clinic, while a bright red placard marked the Covid-positive zone.
But on a sunny afternoon last week, no Covid-19 patients were in sight in the largely empty facility.
Tan, a Chinese medicine practitioner, told AFP she and her colleagues had received up to 80 Covid patients each day during the peak of infections shortly after January 1.
In another village, the sole medical practitioner Luo Yongping told AFP that around half of the residents had already been infected.
The peak was one week ago, he said, adding that demand for medicine to treat Covid symptoms had quickly depleted the village's supply.
Most people AFP spoke to said they had been vaccinated.
But Xi Chen, a health policy expert from the Yale School of Public Health, said that in China's rural areas, the efficacy of the jabs was fast eroded because the last doses were administered a year ago.
The unprecedentedly swift Covid spread points to low levels of immunity among the population, he said.
In contrast to locals AFP spoke to in the country's east in early January, most people interviewed in Yunnan said they didn't know of any deaths in the wave that just passed.
Zhong knew of only one elderly patient who had succumbed.
Central authorities reported almost 60,000 Covid deaths across the country between December 8 and January 12, though the true toll is likely higher as the figures only include deaths in hospitals.
- Second wave coming? -
Chinese leader Xi Jinping said Wednesday he is concerned about the virus situation as people head to their rural hometowns ahead of Lunar New Year celebrations.
With hundreds of millions expected to travel, medical staff are on alert for a potential second wave.
Tan from the Mayidui hospital told AFP that its staff had prepared kits for the surrounding villages with antigen tests and medicines.
But in areas AFP visited, few wore facemasks and many downplayed the threat of the virus.
Smoking a cigarette through a metal water pipe, Zhang, a village store owner on Jingmai mountain, dismissed Covid as similar to the flu.
We would've caught colds anyway in the winter, he said.
Lots and lots of people got infected, said a woman running a roadside stall in Xinghuoshan village, one of many selling homemade red wine.
It's not that serious.