各国の気候対策、１．５度目標に遠く及ばず　国連報告書

【パリＡＦＰ＝時事】国連環境計画（ＵＮＥＰ）は２６日に公表した報告書で、各国が打ち出した最新の気候変動対策では、世界の気温上昇を１．５度以内に抑えるために必要な炭素排出量削減のうちのわずかしか実現できないと指摘した。今月末の国連気候変動枠組み条約第２６回締約国会議（ＣＯＰ２６）開幕を前に、厳しい評価を下した形だ。（写真は資料写真）
　英グラスゴーで開かれるＣＯＰ２６は、気温上昇を産業革命前から１．５度以内に抑える目標を掲げた地球温暖化対策の国際枠組み「パリ協定」を長期的に存続させる上で、重要な節目となるとみられている。
　ＵＮＥＰは毎年、１．５度目標の達成に必要な排出量の水準と、各国の排出量見通しとの差を算出し、「排出ギャップ報告書」として公表している。今年の報告書では、各国の排出量削減計画を「いまだ実現されていない不十分な約束」と断じた。
　ＣＯＰ２６では、各国が経済の脱炭素化に向けた取り組みの強化を表明し、１．５度目標達成に向けた努力を改めて誓約することが期待されている。しかしＵＮＥＰは、約１２０か国が打ち出した最新の野心的計画をもってしても、世界の気温は２．７度上昇すると予測。１．５度目標の達成には２０３０年の予測排出量を５５％削減する必要があるが、現状では削減率が７．５％にとどまる見通しとした。
　アントニオ・グテレス国連事務総長は、今回の報告書により、世界が「今も気候の大惨事に向かっている」ことが示されたと指摘した。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】

〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2021/10/27-13:00）

Countries' latest climate plans will deliver just a tiny percentage of the emissions cuts needed to limit global heating to 1.5C, the United Nations said on Tuesday in a damning assessment ahead of the COP26 climate summit.
Just days before the Glasgow meeting, which is being billed as crucial for the long-term viability of the Paris climate deal, the UN's Environment Programme said that national plans to reduce carbon pollution amounted to weak promises, not yet delivered.
In its annual Emissions Gap assessment, UNEP calculates the gulf between the emissions set to be released by countries and the level needed to limit temperature rises to 1.5C -- the most ambitious Paris Agreement goal.
The summit's organisers say they want countries to commit to keeping Earth on course for the 1.5C goal through redoubled pledges to decarbonise their economies.
But according to UNEP, even the most up-to-date and ambitious plans from around 120 countries puts the world on track to warm 2.7C.
UN chief Antonio Guterres said Tuesday's report showed that the world was still on track for climate catastrophe.
As world leaders prepare for COP26, this report is another thundering wake-up call. How many do we need?
Under the 2015 Paris deal, signatories are required to submit new emissions-cutting plans -- known as Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs -- every five years, each more ambitious than the last.
UNEP said that most recent commitments would shave 7.5 percent off previously predicted 2030 emissions levels.
To keep on a 1.5C trajectory, a 55-percent reduction is needed, it said.
A 30-percent cut is needed for 2C of warming, a threshold the Paris deal commits nations to keep temperatures well below.
To stand a chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C, we have eight years to almost halve greenhouse gas emissions, said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
- 'Imminent peril' -
UNEP said that the Covid-19 pandemic led to an unprecedented 5.4-percent drop in global emissions in 2020.
However, even this was not enough to narrow the gap between humanity's current emissions trajectory and a 1.5C world.
Putting the challenge into stark perspective, it said that countries needed to slash CO2 and its equivalent in other greenhouse gases by an additional 28 billion tonnes by 2030; carbon dioxide emissions alone are projected to hit 33 billion tonnes in 2021.
Report co-author Anne Ohloff told AFP that it showed there had been some progress on emissions since the Paris Agreement.
The new (NDC) commitments shave off 4 Gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent annually by 2030 compared to the last ones, she said.
But it's far from sufficient, of course. Overall we are very far from where we should be.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in August said that Earth could hit the 1.5C threshold as soon as 2030 and be consistently above it by mid-century.
The report on Tuesday said that even if all net-zero pledges were delivered in full, there was a 66-percent chance that temperature rises could be limited to 2.2C.
There is no appetite for reducing fossil fuel consumption globally at the rate required to meet our climate goals, said Myles Allen, professor of Geosystem Science at the University of Oxford.
This year's Emissions Gap report focused on the role in global heating played by methane, the most potent greenhouse gas.
It found that existing technical measures could reduce man-made methane emissions by 20 percent per year, with little or no additional cost to industry.
It also said that the plans of many of the 49 countries that have made net-zero pledges remained vague and not reflected in NDCs.
Overall, a net zero goal must be accompanied by immediate policy action towards ambitious 2030 targets, said Joanna Depledge, from the Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance.
Otherwise, it is mere virtue signalling.