バイデン氏就任１年 募る焦り、２年目に向け臨戦態勢

【ワシントンＡＦＰ＝時事】ドナルド・トランプ前大統領によって深く分断された米国を癒やすため、再び政界へ身を投じ、２０２０年の大統領選に出馬したジョー・バイデン大統領（７９）は当初、優しい祖父のような人物だった。だが就任から１年がたったバイデン氏は、いら立ちと怒りをあらわにする闘士へと変貌を遂げた。（写真は資料写真）
　先週の演説では「穏やかでいるのにはうんざりだ」と語気を強めたバイデン氏。自身の目玉政策の一つである投票権法案を成立させるために、上院議員と水面下で何度も実りのない「穏やかな会話」をしたことについて語ったものだが、この１年間のいら立ちを総括した発言だったとも言えるだろう。
　昨年のバイデン氏が穏やかだったならば、今年は声高で好戦的な同氏の姿が見られそうだ。実現が遠のく政策案を救うための時間や忍耐、そして周囲の協力がなくなりつつあるのだ。
　７８歳という史上最高齢で米大統領に就任した際、バイデン氏は大きな課題の数々に直面していた。国内では新型コロナウイルスが大流行し、つい２週間前にはトランプ氏の支持者が選挙結果を覆そうとする事件が発生。経済は昏睡（こんすい）状態に陥り、国外では同盟国が「トランプ・ショック」の余波から抜け切れずにいた。
　加えて、警察による身柄拘束で黒人が死亡する問題が相次いだことで、人種差別をめぐる緊張も激化。こうした状況に対するバイデン氏の対処は、有能さや、旧来の良識、そして団結を約束することだった。
　そして、実際にそれを実現するチャンスがあるようにも見えた。与党・民主党は上下両院で僅差ながらも過半数を確保し、トランプ氏はツイッターから追放され、新型ウイルスのワクチンも開発された。
　だが、それから１年。米国は新型ウイルスの変異株「オミクロン株」と「デルタ株」に襲われ、社会の分断はさらに深まり、今年１１月の中間選挙では共和党による議会掌握が濃厚。バイデン氏の運は尽きてしまったかのようだ。

■次々と暗礁に乗り上げる目玉政策
　民主党は上院で副大統領が持つ１票によって辛うじて過半数を保ち、下院でも野党・共和党との差が数議席にとどまっていることから、「より良い再建」と銘打たれた大規模な社会福祉法案は暗礁に乗り上げている。トランプ支持者から米国の民主主義を守るために必要だとして、バイデン氏が推進する投票権法案も同様だ。
　根は中道派であるバイデン氏は、右派の心に訴えることも、自党の左派を満足させることもできなかった。同氏が今思い知らされているように、現代では中道を保つのは難しい。
　世論調査分析サイト「ファイブサーティーエイト」での平均支持率は、５３％から４２％に低下。最近の米キニピアック大学の世論調査では３３％と、他の調査結果との開きは大きいものの、懸念すべき低支持率となっている。
　国外でも状況は同様だ。同盟国は、トランプ氏無き米国の復帰を歓迎しているが、アフガニスタンからの屈辱的な軍部隊撤退により、手腕があるバイデン政権というイメージは地に落ちた。ロシアはそうした米国の姿をしり目に、ウクライナとの国境に大規模な兵力を集結させている。
　それでも、挽回の可能性はまだある。新型ウイルスの流行が収束し、経済が安定し、インフレが緩和されれば、それが追い風となり、中間選挙を前に自党内で各法案に対する支持を取り付けられるかもしれない。
　バイデン氏の側近は、議会に１兆９０００億ドル（約２２０兆円）規模の追加経済対策「米国救済計画」を可決させたことで、コロナ禍で打撃を受けた経済に活力を与え、事態の悪化を防げたともアピールしている。民主党はさらに、１兆２０００億ドル（約１４０兆円）のインフラ法案も共和党の強い支持を得て可決させた。
　しかし２０２２年はおそらく、民主党の内紛が続き、１１月に共和党が上下両院の片方または両方を制する結果になる可能性の方が高いだろう。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】

〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2022/01/20-11:20）

Joe Biden 1.0 was a calming, grandfatherly figure, a low-key veteran coming out of retirement in 2020 to heal a nation deeply divided by Donald Trump. A year later, meet Biden 2.0 -- the frustrated, angry fighter.
I'm tired of being quiet, he said last week in a blistering speech.
Biden was referring specifically to his many fruitless quiet conversations behind the scenes with senators in a doomed effort to get his signature legislation on voting rights passed. He could just as well have been summing up the exasperation of his first 12 months in the Oval Office.
And if 2021 saw mild Biden, 2022 looks set to feature a louder, more pugnacious version -- a president running out of time, patience and allies to save what remain of his ambitions.
Biden took office January 20, 2021 -- at 78, the oldest man to ever become US president -- facing incredible challenges.
Covid-19 was out of control, Trump's supporters had just two weeks earlier tried overturning the presidential election, the economy was comatose, and around the world US allies were reeling in Trump shock of their own.
Biden's answer to all that -- not to mention to the explosive tensions over racism after a series of Black Americans were killed during botched arrests -- was to promise competency, old-fashioned decency and unity.
My whole soul is in this. Bringing America together, uniting our people, Biden pledged in his inaugural address.
And he even seemed to have a chance of pulling it off.
Democrats narrowly controlled both houses of Congress, Trump had been banished from Twitter, and Covid vaccines were ready.
There were high expectations that Biden, given his experience and his knowledge of Washington, would be able... to make the trains run on time again, said Lara Brown, director of the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
It was all about a return to normalcy.
- 'Hubris' -
Fast forward to the start of Biden's second year.
Beset by the Delta and Omicron Covid variants, an ever-more divided America, and the likely loss of Congress to the Republicans in November's midterm elections, Biden's luck at the age of 79 seems to have run short.
With a majority of just one in the Senate and barely more than that in the House, his huge social spending plan -- called Build Back Better -- is dead in the water. Ditto the voting rights package he says is needed to save US democracy from Trump's supporters.
A centrist at heart, Biden has failed to connect with the right or satisfy his own party's left. As he's discovering, the center today is hard to find.
Average approval polls on fivethirtyeight.com are at a lowly 42 percent, down from 53. A recent Quinnipiac poll, while an outlier, posted a disturbing 33 percent approval.
Abroad, the picture is similar.
While world allies do like having a United States not governed by Trump back, the country's humiliating military exit from Afghanistan torpedoed the Biden administration's aura of professionalism. Certainly Russia seems unconcerned, as it masses troops on Ukraine's border.
It all adds up to a bitter awakening from the days when the White House buzzed with idealism and talk of Biden emulating his hero Franklin Roosevelt, who led America through the Great Depression in the 1930s.
Their optimism, combined with the public expectation that all of this would be solved, led them down a path of hubris, Brown said.
- 'Less shouting' or 'fight'? -
There's still a scenario where Biden comes out on top: the pandemic burns out, the economy stabilizes, inflation recedes, and with the subsequent feel-good factor Biden gets his party to reverse those legislative defeats just in time for the midterms.
Biden's aides also point out they got Congress to pass the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, juicing a Covid-ravaged economy and preventing more widespread misery. Remarkably, Democrats also got strong Republican support in passing a $1.2 trillion infrastructure package.
All that with a razor-thin majority in Congress.
The more likely outcome for 2022, though, is continued Democratic infighting, followed by Republicans winning one or both chambers of Congress in November.
At that point, Biden can expect aggressive House investigations, and even possibly impeachment, as Republicans seek to further undermine their opponents' ability to govern.
And it would become increasingly likely a 2024 White House challenge could come from Trump, even as the former president continues to try to subvert the 2020 election.
So much for Biden's vow to restore the soul of America.
David Ignatius, a Washington Post columnist at the heart of the mainstream establishment, advises Biden to pivot back to less shouting and more of Biden's trademark common sense.
But Biden, his back against the wall, is signaling that he sees things more darkly going into 2022.
I did not seek this fight, he said in another dramatic speech this month, this time commemorating the anniversary of the January 6 storming of Congress by Trump supporters.
But I will not shrink from it either, Biden said. I will stand in this breach.