製造業、小幅悪化か　海外減速、トランプ関税懸念―短観予測

　日銀が４月１日発表する３月の全国企業短期経済観測調査（短観）に関する民間シンクタンクなど１４社の予測が、２４日までに出そろった。大企業の景況感を示す業況判断指数（ＤＩ）は、製造業で小幅悪化を予想。海外経済減速に伴う輸出伸び悩みに加え、トランプ米政権の関税政策への懸念が下押し要因になるとみている。
　ＤＩは業況が「良い」と答えた企業の割合から「悪い」を引いて算出する。
　大企業製造業ＤＩの予測平均は前回の２０２４年１２月短観から２ポイント悪化のプラス１２。「中国経済の低迷が続いたほか、トランプ関税の悪影響が景況感を圧迫した」（ニッセイ基礎研究所）といった指摘が出ている。（2025/03/24-18:07）

An upcoming Bank of Japan "tankan" quarterly survey report is seen showing a slight deterioration in business sentiment among major Japanese manufacturers, according to estimates by private think tanks.
   Many economists think that sluggish exports amid slowing overseas economies and concern about U.S. President Donald Trump's high tariff policy are pushing down the sentiment.
   The headline diffusion index for current sentiment among large manufacturers is projected at plus 12 for the March report, due out April 1, down 2 points from the previous December survey.
   The number is the average of forecasts by 14 economic research institutes. The DI is calculated by subtracting the percentage of companies reporting bad business conditions from that of those seeing good conditions.
   "The Chinese economy's continued weakness and the negative effect of Trump's tariffs weighed on business sentiment," NLI Research Institute said.