仏大統領選、今ならルペン氏がマクロン氏に勝利　世論調査

【パリＡＦＰ＝時事】エマニュエル・マクロン政権の年金制度改革に抗議する全国的なデモが続くフランスで、昨年の大統領選が今やり直された場合、極右のマリーヌ・ルペン氏がマクロン氏に勝利するとの世論調査の結果が５日、明らかにされた。（写真は国民連合のマリーヌ・ルペン氏）
　仏ＢＦＭテレビの委託で調査会社エラブが行った世論調査で、昨年と同じく決選投票になった場合、得票率はルペン氏が５５％、マクロン氏が４５％となることが示された。
　昨年の決選投票ではマクロン氏（得票率５８．５％）が、ルペン氏（同４１．５％）に勝利し再選を決めた。現職大統領の再選は、２０年ぶり。
　エラブのベルナール・サナネス社長はＢＦＭに対し、大統領選が今やり直された場合、「マクロン氏は支持者をつなぎ止めるのに苦労するだろう。彼に再び投票するのは１０人中７人だけだろう」と述べた。さらに、ルペン氏の当選を阻止するための投票も大きく減少するため、ルペン氏は「すべての選挙区」で得票数を伸ばすだろうと指摘した。
　ただし、次の仏大統領選は４年後で、大統領の任期が連続２期までとされておりマクロン氏が出馬できないことから、今回の世論調査はあくまで仮定の話であり、結果を過大評価すべきではないという。
　とはいえ今回の結果は、フランスの政治力学に変化が起きていることを示すものだ。年金支給開始年齢を６２歳から６４歳に引き上げに抗議する全国的なデモは、ルペン氏を最も利するとの見方が強い。
　エラブの調査では、年金制度改革に抗議するデモやストライキを支持してきた急進左派のジャンリュック・メランション氏の支持率低下も示された。
　仏世論研究所とコンサルティング会社フィデュシアルが行った別の調査でも、メランション氏の支持率は低下し、２０２７年に４度目の大統領選に挑戦する意向を示しているルペン氏の支持率は急上昇している。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2023/04/06-16:48）

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen would beat Emmanuel Macron if the presidential election of last year were repeated now, a shock poll suggested Wednesday on the eve of fresh protests against the government's pension reform.
The survey from the Elabe group for the BFM TV channel indicated Le Pen would score 55 percent and President Macron 45 percent if they faced each other in a run-off vote.
Last April, Macron defeated Le Pen by a margin of 58.5 percent to 41.5 percent to become the first French president to win a second term in two decades.
Emmanuel Macron would struggle to retain his electorate, only seven out of 10 would vote for him again under this hypothesis, Bernard Sananes, head of Elabe, told BFM. And the blocking vote (against the far-right) would be much lower.
He said Le Pen's gains were spectacular and she would progress in all electoral categories.
Sananes stressed that the polling was hypothetical and the results should not be over-interpreted, given that the next presidential election is four years away and Macron will be ineligible to run again.
But the results give a snapshot of changing dynamics in French politics, with Le Pen widely seen as the biggest winner from months of protests over Macron's unpopular bid to raise the retirement age to 64 from 62 currently.
Far-left leader Jean-Luc Melenchon, who has backed protesters and strikers, has lost support, the Elabe poll and another on Monday by the Ifop-Fiducial survey group suggested.
The Ifop-Fiducial survey group also found a sharp increase in support for Le Pen, who has made clear she intends to stand for president for a fourth time in 2027.
Politicians across the spectrum have repeatedly warned in recent months that the 54-year-old stands to gain from the turmoil sweeping the country, as well as longstanding concerns about crime and immigration.
Le Pen has kept a relatively low-profile during huge protests and strikes, keeping her public statements to a minimum and maintaining discipline among her 88 MPs in parliament who form the largest single opposition group.
At least I've succeeded in winning over my political opponents, Le Pen quipped to AFP in an interview last month. They seem to spend their lives telling everyone that I will be the next president.
The prospect of the far-right leader succeeding Macron at the next election in 2027 is said by allies to gnaw at the 45-year-old president.
It's the issue that haunts Emmanuel, a senior lawmaker who knows the president well told AFP recently.