地政学情勢悪化で核兵器近代化進む　国際平和研が警鐘

【ストックホルムＡＦＰ＝時事】スウェーデンのストックホルム国際平和研究所（ＳＩＰＲＩ）は１７日に発表した年鑑で、地政学的な情勢の悪化を背景に核保有国が核兵器の近代化を進めていると警告し、各国首脳に自制を求めた。（写真は資料写真）
　世界で核兵器を保有しているとされるのは米国、ロシア、英国、フランス、中国、インド、パキスタン、北朝鮮、イスラエルの９か国。ＳＩＰＲＩはこれらの国について、「核兵器の近代化を続けている」と分析。
　ＳＩＰＲＩによれば、今年１月時点で世界の核弾頭の総数は推定１万２１２１発だった。このうち推定９５８５発が使用可能な状態にあり、約２１００発は弾道ミサイルに搭載され「高度警戒態勢」に置かれている。
　全核兵器のほぼ９０％をロシアと米国が保有しているが、中国も初めて複数の核弾頭を高度警戒態勢に置いたとみられている。
　ＳＩＰＲＩの大量破壊兵器プログラムのディレクターを務めるウィルフレッド・ワン氏は、「国際情勢で核兵器がこれほど重要な役割を果たすようになったのは冷戦以来だ」と強調。
　ダン・スミス所長は「私たちは今、人類史上最も危険とも言える時期にある」とし、大国に対して「足並みをそろえながら、冷静になって自制してもらいたい」と呼び掛けた。
　ＳＩＰＲＩはまた、ウクライナおよびパレスチナ自治区ガザ地区での紛争をめぐり国際情勢が緊迫化する中、核軍備管理に向けた外交努力も大きく後退しているとした。
　ロシアは昨年２月、米国との核軍縮条約「新戦略兵器削減条約（新ＳＴＡＲＴ）」の履行を停止した。
　ウラジーミル・プーチン大統領は、ウクライナ侵攻開始以降、核兵器の使用について繰り返し言及。今年２月の年次教書演説では核戦争に発展する「現実的な」リスクがあると警告し、５月には非戦略核兵器（戦術核兵器）の使用を想定した演習の実施を指示した。
　一方、米国とイランは昨年６月、核をめぐり非公式に合意したが、イスラエルとイスラム組織ハマスが１０月に武力衝突して以降、白紙に戻されたとＳＩＰＲＩは指摘している。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2024/06/17-16:52）

The role of atomic weapons has become more prominent and nuclear states are modernising arsenals as geopolitical relations deteriorate, researchers said Monday, urging world leaders to step back and reflect.
Diplomatic efforts to control nuclear arms also suffered major setbacks amid strained international relations over the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said in its annual yearbook.
We have not seen nuclear weapons playing such a prominent role in international relations since the Cold War, Wilfred Wan, director of SIPRI's Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme, said in a statement.
The research institute noted that in February 2023 Russia announced it was suspending participation in the 2010 New START treaty -- the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty limiting Russian and US strategic nuclear forces.
SIPRI also noted that Russia carried out tactical nuclear weapon drills close to the Ukrainian border in May.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has upped his nuclear rhetoric since the Ukraine conflict began, warning in his address to the nation in February there was a real risk of nuclear war.
In addition, an informal agreement between the United States and Iran reached in June 2023 was upended after the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October, SIPRI said.
- 'Extremely concerning' -
According to SIPRI, the world's nine nuclear-armed states also continued to modernise their nuclear arsenals and several deployed new nuclear-armed or nuclear-capable weapon systems in 2023.
The nine countries are the United States, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.
In January, of the estimated 12,121 nuclear warheads around the world about 9,585 were in stockpiles for potential use, according to SIPRI.
Around 2,100 were kept in a state of high operational alert on ballistic missiles.
Nearly all of these warheads belong to Russia and the United States -- which together possess almost 90 percent of all nuclear weapons -- but China was for the first time believed to have some warheads on high operational alert.
While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, regrettably we continue to see year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads, SIPRI director Dan Smith said.
He added that this trend would likely continue and probably accelerate in the coming years, describing it as extremely concerning.
Researchers also stressed the continuing deterioration of global security over the past year, as the impact from the wars in Ukraine and Gaza could be seen in almost every aspect of issues relating to armaments and international security.
We are now in one of the most dangerous periods in human history, Smith said, urging the world's great powers to step back and reflect. Preferably together.