仏大統領の「台湾関係ない」発言、中国つけ上がらせる恐れ　欧米で物議

【パリＡＦＰ＝時事】フランスのエマニュエル・マクロン大統領が台湾への対応をめぐり、欧州は米中いずれにも追随すべきではないと発言し、物議を醸している。専門家は西側に新たな混乱をもたらし、中国を勢いづかせる恐れがあるとみている。（写真は中国・北京で、エマニュエル・マクロン仏大統領〈右〉と握手する習近平国家主席。）
　今月７日、３日間の訪中を終えて帰国したマクロン氏は、仏経済紙レゼコーやニュースサイト「ポリティコ」などに対し、台湾問題について「最悪なのは、欧州が米国の動きや中国の過剰反応に追随し、同調しなければならないと考えることだ」「（欧州は）自分たちとは関係のない世界の混乱や危機に巻き込まれるべきではない」との持論を展開した。
　この発言は、自立を貫こうとするフランスの長年の外交政策の一環とも、米中間の対立に欧州が巻き込まれることへの不安の表れとも解釈できる。だが、米国がウクライナ支援を通じて欧州の安全保障を維持するために数十億ドルを投じ、西側の結束が特に重要とされる時期だけに、欧米の多くの専門家や政治家から批判が相次いでいる。
　仏パリのシンクタンク「戦略研究財団」で中国研究を専門とするアントワーヌ・ボンダズ氏はＡＦＰに、台湾をめぐる緊張の責任は中国ではなく、米国にあると言わんばかりの発言だったと指摘した。
　「台湾支配をもくろむ『修正主義大国』（中国を指す）が現状を変更しようとしているにもかかわらず、不安定化の責任は米国にあると言うのか。責任の所在があべこべだ」と批判した。
　さらに、最も大きな影響は、仮に中国が台湾に侵攻して制圧するような事態になってもフランス、そしておそらく欧州は介入しないだろうと中国に思わせてしまうことにあるとし、「（中国への）抑止力を弱めることになる」と分析。「ウクライナから学ぶべき教訓があるとすれば、（ロシアのウラジーミル・）プーチン大統領を抑止できなかったことだ」と述べた。
　■「戦略的ナンセンス」
　米ホワイトハウスは１０日、フランスとは「素晴らしい二国間関係」を築いていると表明し、事態の沈静化を図ろうとした。
　だが、共和党のマルコ・ルビオ上院議員はネットに投稿した動画で、「マクロン氏が全欧州を代表し、台湾をめぐって欧州は米中いずれの側にも付くつもりはないと言うのなら、わが国も（ロシア、ウクライナ）いずれかの側に付くのをやめて（欧州に）ウクライナ問題を任せるべきかもしれない」と訴えた。
　同じく共和党の有力者、リンゼー・グラム上院議員はマクロン氏の訪中について、「中国共産党と習近平国家主席をつけ上がらせるものだ。その習氏は、世界秩序の書き換えと台湾の武力併合に執心しているようだ」とツイッターに投稿した。
　シカゴ国際問題評議会代表で、バラク・オバマ元大統領の顧問を務めたアイボ・ダールダー氏も、「ウクライナ紛争のような欧州の危機に対処するためにマクロン氏が米国の安全保障義務に頼ることに問題は全くない」と指摘。その一方で、欧州は無関係の危機に巻き込まれるべきではないと言い張るのは「『戦略的自立』ではない。『戦略的ナンセンス』だ」とツイートした。
　ドイツの保守系議員で外交政策に詳しいノルベルト・レトゲン氏は日刊紙ビルトに、「マクロン氏は完全に正気を失っているようだ」と語った。
　■過去にも失言
　仏大統領府（エリゼ宮）は１１日、火消しに追われた。
　側近の一人は「マクロン大統領はフランスの立ち位置について、米国との距離と中国との距離は同じではないとたびたび発言している。米国は同盟国であり、価値観を共有している」と述べた。
　ただ、専門家に言わせれば、マクロン氏は過去にも失言している。２０１９年には、北大西洋条約機構は「脳死」状態だと発言。昨年にはウクライナ侵攻の外交的な解決に向け、「ロシアに屈辱を与えてはならない」と語り、同盟諸国の反発を招いた。
　仏紙ルモンドは１１日、「誤解は一度なら釈明できる」「しかし、繰り返されるなら外交政策の進め方に問題がある」と批判した。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2023/04/12-16:51）

French President Emmanuel Macron risks creating fresh confusion among his Western allies and encouraging China with his latest headline-grabbing foreign policy comments, this time on Taiwan, analysts say.
Returning from a trip to China, the 45-year-old French leader told the US-based Politico site and France's Les Echos newspaper that Europe shouldn't be a follower of the United States in the event of conflict with China over Taiwan.
The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must be followers and adapt ourselves to the American rhythm and a Chinese overreaction, Macron was quoted as saying.
He added that Europe should not be caught up in a disordering of the world and crises that aren't ours.
Such comments could be seen as longstanding French foreign policy, which seeks to underline French autonomy, and they also reflect growing unease in Europe about the continent being sucked into a confrontation between China and the United States.
But many analysts and politicians in Europe and the United States questioned the timing -- when Washington is investing billions in European security through its support for Ukraine, and when Western unity is seen as particularly important.
In terms of communication, it's a fiasco, Antoine Bondaz, a China expert at the Foundation for Strategic Research, a Paris-based think-tank, told AFP.
He said Macron had implied that Washington was responsable for tensions over Taiwan, rather than China.
You have a revisionist power which wants to take control of Taiwan, which wants to change the status quo, but you present the United States as being responsible for the instability? It's a complete reversal of the responsibility for the tensions, Bondaz said.
He suggested the biggest impact would be China believing that France -- and perhaps Europe -- would not intervene if Beijing invaded and seized control of Taiwan.
It weakens the deterrence, Bondaz said. And if there was one lesson that we should have learned from Ukraine, it's that we didn't succeed in deterring (Russian President Vladimir) Putin.
- 'Strategic nonsense' -
In the United States, the White House on Monday sought to play down the controversy, saying the United States had a terrific bilateral relationship with France.
But Republican Senator Marco Rubio posted a video online suggesting that Washington should re-think its own priorities.
If Macron speaks for all of Europe, and their position now is, they're not going to pick sides between the US and China over Taiwan, maybe then we should not be taking sides either?.?.?.?and (let them) handle Ukraine, Rubio said.
Influential Republican Senator Lindsey Graham tweeted that Macron's visit to Beijing emboldens the communists and (Chinese) President Xi who seems to be hell bent on rewriting world order and taking Taiwan by force.
Ivo Daalder, the head of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs and a former advisor to US ex-president Barack Obama, also objected to Macron's view that Europe should not get caught up in crises that are not ours.
But he is perfectly fine with relying on US security commitments to address crises like Ukraine in Europe. That's not 'strategic autonomy.' That's strategic nonsense, Daalder wrote on Twitter.
Norbert Roettgen, a conservative German lawmaker and foreign policy expert, told Bild newspaper that Macron seems to have completely lost his senses.
- 'Element of ego' -
The French president's office sought to downplay the comments on Tuesday.
Europeans have their own interests and acknowledge them transparently and with loyalty towards their allies and international partners, an aide said.
The president has often said that France is not equidistant between the United States and China. The United States is an ally. We share common values.
But other observers pointed to other past examples when Macron has antagonised allies, such as when he called the NATO military alliance brain dead in 2019 or when he suggested Putin should not be humiliated in Ukraine last year.
A misunderstanding can be an explanation once, Le Monde newspaper wrote on Tuesday. But when it happens so often, it's the way of conducting foreign policy that is at fault.
Macron has often talked up his willingness to be disruptive as a political leader and he has sought to position himself as a visionary leader in Europe.
But critics see him as out-of-touch and frequently over-confident in his own ability to influence others.
Mujtaba Rahman, a European affairs expert from the London-based Eurasia Group, said that the timing of Macron's comments on Taiwan was poor.
But he added on Twitter that it was most likely just Macron being Macron, thinking ahead in an interesting way but not measuring the immediate political impact of his words.
But for Bondaz it's his personality and there's an element of ego.
He argued Macron is convinced that he understands better than diplomats and experts who are working on these issues every day.