ウクライナ侵攻で核戦争の悪夢再び　「核の傘」ほころび懸念

【パリＡＦＰ＝時事】何十年も人々の意識から遠ざかっていた核戦争の悪夢が、ロシアのウクライナ侵攻によってよみがえっている。戦況のこう着状態から脱するために、ロシアが核兵器を使用するのではないかという懸念だ。（写真はウクライナ東部ハルキウ州でロシア軍に攻撃された村のアパート）
　国連安全保障理事会の常任理事国であるロシアおよび米、英、中国、フランスの５か国は、核拡散防止条約（ＮＰＴ）で核保有国として認められている。
　だが、北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）元事務総長補のカミーユ・グラン氏は「核保有大国が、その地位を利用して核兵器使用をちらつかせながら通常戦争を行ったのは初めてだ」とＡＦＰに指摘した。
　第２次世界大戦の終盤に広島・長崎に米国が原爆を投下した後、冷戦時代のグローバルな安全保障構造を支えた道徳的・戦略的な「核のタブー」は今も維持されている。だが、核をめぐる言説はエスカレートしている。
　ロシアのテレビはウクライナ侵攻開始以降、仏パリや米ニューヨークといった西側諸国の都市への核攻撃について繰り返し論じている。
　匿名で取材に応じたロシアの元外交官は、ウラジーミル・プーチン大統領は自国の存亡の危機と判断すれば「（核の）ボタンを押すだろう」と警告した。

■軍縮は「崩壊」
　ノーベル賞を受賞した経済学者のトーマス・シェリング氏は２００７年、核兵器使用について「過去半世紀で最も素晴らしい出来事は、それが起こらなかったことだ」と述べた。
　しかし、１９４５年以降に核の抑止力となった枠組みはずっと前から崩れつつある。米国は、旧ソ連と１９７２年に締結した弾道弾迎撃ミサイル（ＡＢＭ）制限条約を２００２年に破棄。その後、中距離核戦力（ＩＮＦ）全廃条約をはじめとする重要協定も失効した。
　「軍縮に関しては、新戦略兵器削減条約（新ＳＴＡＲＴ、Ｎｅｗ ＳＴＡＲＴ）以外、すべて崩壊している」とグラン氏は言う。

■アジア・中東も危機
　５大国以外で核兵器を保有しているのは、インドと北朝鮮、パキスタン。イスラエルは公式に認めたことはないが、保有していると考えられている。
　２００３年にＮＰＴを脱退した北朝鮮は今年、ミサイル実験を相次いで強行。先制攻撃を辞さない「核武力政策に関する法令」を９月に採択した。日米韓３か国の政府は、同国が近いうちに７回目の核実験を実施するのではないかとみている。
　アジアの非核保有国が懸念するのは、米国の「核の傘」による保護にほころびが生じる事態だ。
　カーネギー国際平和基金のイ・チョンミン研究員は「（米国の核の傘などの）拡大抑止を水風船に見立てると、致命的な穴が開き、水が染み出している」状態だと表現した。
　中国も核兵器の増強を続けており、米国防総省の分析によれば、保有する核弾頭数は１０年以内に１０００発に達し、米国にほぼ並ぶ。
　中東でも、２０１５年のイラン核合意の復活を目指す取り組みが難航しており、イランが核兵器開発の意思と能力を持つ「核敷居国」になるのではないかとの懸念が再燃している。

■核拡散に対する懸念
　ウクライナは、旧ソ連時代に配備されていた核兵器を進んで放棄し、ロシアに移転した。だが、核武装した同国に侵略され、核拡散の懸念を強めている。
　フランス海軍の核戦力部隊を率い、現在は仏シンクタンク国際関係研究所（ＩＦＲＩ）の戦略研究センターでアドバイザーを務めているジャンルイ・ロジエ氏は、「日本や韓国のような国々が独自に核兵器を保有する是非を問うのは、今では妥当かもしれない」と述べ、「サウジアラビアやトルコ、エジプトなど中東でも同じことが言える」と続けた。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2022/12/19-15:36）

Banished from public consciousness for decades, the nightmare of nuclear warfare has surged back to prominence with Russia's invasion of Ukraine, highlighting the erosion of the Cold War global security architecture.
With Moscow on the back foot in its offensive, the military stalemate has raised fears Russia could resort to its nuclear arsenal to achieve a military breakthrough.
Russia, along with Britain, China, France and the United States, are the five recognised nuclear weapons powers and permanent UN Security Council members.
It's the first time a nuclear power has used its status to wage a conventional war under the shadow cast by nuclear weapons, said Camille Grand, a former NATO deputy secretary-general.
One might have imagined that rogue states would adopt such an attitude, but suddenly it's one of the two major nuclear powers, a member of the UN Security Council, he told AFP, insisting the actual use of the weapons remains improbable.
For now, the moral and strategic nuclear taboo that emerged after the US bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki at the end of World War II in 1945 still holds.
But rhetoric has escalated massively.
Russian TV broadcasts, since the invasion of Ukraine, have repeatedly discussed nuclear strikes on Western cities like Paris or New York.
One former Russian diplomat, asking not to be named, warned that if President Vladimir Putin felt Russia's existence threatened, he will press the button.
The year's events have been a harsh wake-up call for Europe, which spent decades in a state of relative relaxation in terms of nuclear security, enjoying the so-called Cold War peace dividend.
Across the Atlantic, President Joe Biden warned in October of a potential Armageddon hanging over the world.
- Disarmament 'in ruins' -
The most spectacular event of the past half century is one that did not occur, Nobel-winning economist and strategy expert Thomas Schelling wrote in 2007.
But the framework that kept world leaders' fingers off the button after 1945 had been crumbling for years before Putin's order to invade.
In 2002, the United States quit the critical Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty it had signed with the Soviet Union in 1972, which maintained the nuclear balance of power.
Other important agreements fell away in the years that followed, including the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty that Washington dropped in 2019, blaming Russia for not complying.
Regarding disarmament, it's all in ruins, apart from New Start, Grand said, referring to the Obama-era agreement with Russia to reduce numbers of warheads, missiles, bombers and launchers.
- 'Very dangerous crisis' -
India, North Korea and Pakistan, along with the five recognised powers, also have nuclear weapons, while Israel is widely assumed to do so while having never officially acknowledged it.
North Korea sharply stepped up missile testing this year, continuing its pursuit of an independent nuclear deterrent that began when it quit the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003.
Washington, Seoul and Tokyo all believe a seventh nuclear weapons test by Pyongyang is imminent.
The isolated dictatorship announced in September a new nuclear doctrine, making clear that it would never give up the weapons and that they could be used preemptively.
We're going to see a very dangerous crisis in Asia, Chung Min Lee, a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recently told a Paris conference.
Non-nuclear countries in the region fear that the protection provided by the US nuclear umbrella is fraying.
If you imagine extended deterrence as a water balloon, today the water balloon has some critical holes and water is seeping out, he added.
China's nuclear arsenal is also growing, with Pentagon estimates putting it at 1,000 warheads -- roughly on par with US bombs -- within a decade.
And in the Middle East, the struggle to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, hobbled by its brutal repression of recent protests at home, has revived fears that Tehran could soon be a threshold state on the brink of building a bomb.
- Proliferation fears -
In August, a UN conference on the future of the NPT saw a joint declaration by 191 countries blocked at the last moment by Russia.
One French diplomat reported extraordinarily aggressive nuclear rhetoric from Moscow and disdain for the treaty.
We saw a break in Russia's attitude, which had historically been in support of the NPT, the diplomat added.
China was very vocal, offering a very crude denunciation of the US-UK-Australia AUKUS Pacific alliance that will deliver nuclear-powered submarines to Canberra, the diplomat said.
Beijing claimed that the alliance risked further nuclear proliferation, while failing to lift doubts about the opacity of its own nuclear doctrine or the speed at which its arsenal is growing.
The invasion of a state that willingly gave up nuclear weapons, Ukraine, by its nuclear-armed neighbour has increased fears of proliferation.
Today, countries like Japan or South Korea might legitimately ask whether they need a bomb of their own, said Jean-Louis Lozier, a former head of France's nuclear forces.
The same is true in the Middle East of Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, he added.