行き場なく腐敗する恐れも…ロシア黒海封鎖で高まる食料危機 ウクライナ

【ＡＦＰ＝時事】ウクライナ南部オデーサ近郊に広がる小麦畑。農業従事者のドミトリー・マトゥリャクさん（６２）は、どこまでも続く穂波が豊作を約束しているにもかかわらず、多くの人が間もなく飢えに苦しむことになるのではないかと心を痛めている。（写真はウクライナの小麦畑）
　ロシアがウクライナに侵攻を開始した日、マトゥリャクさんが所有する倉庫の一つが空爆を受け、４００トン以上の飼料が灰となった。クリミア半島から出撃したロシア軍の部隊は、ウクライナ南部のかなりの部分を制圧した。
　だが、もっと悪いことが待ち受けているかもしれない。ロシア軍は当初恐れられていたようにオデーサ港に攻め寄せることはなかったが、黒海の封鎖を続けている。このためウクライナ経済は壊滅的な打撃を受け、世界各地に飢餓の脅威が広がっている。
　ウクライナ各地のサイロや港には、行き場を失った数百万トンの穀物があふれ返っている。温暖な南部は数週間のうちに夏の収穫期を迎えるが、今シーズンの小麦の貯蔵場所はほとんど確保できておらず、大量の穀物が放置され腐敗するのではないかと懸念されている。
　「こんなふうに一国の食糧を腐らせ、他の国の人を貧困と飢えに突き落とすなんて、残忍だ」とマトゥリャクさん。「これは残虐行為だ。残忍だ。他に言いようがない」

■飢えて死ぬだけ

　ウクライナ東部の消耗戦に注目が集まっているが、黒海封鎖の影響はもっと広範囲に及びかねない。食料価格の高騰や飢饉（ききん）の恐れを警告する専門家の声は、切迫度が増す一方だ。
　ウクライナは世界有数の穀倉地帯で、ロシアに侵攻される前は毎月約４５０万トンの農作物を海路で輸出。世界の輸出量に占める割合は小麦が１２％、トウモロコシが１５％、ヒマワリ油が５０％だった。
　だが、紛争と黒海封鎖で、貿易はほぼ止まった。鉄道とトラックを用いた代替輸送では、大量の農産物の輸出に求められる物流面と資金面での高いハードルを乗り越えられない。
　国連（ＵＮ）のアントニオ・グテレス事務総長は１８日、ロシアのウクライナ侵攻のために「数千万人が食料不足に陥りかねない」「栄養失調、集団飢餓、飢饉が発生し、何年も続く恐れがある」と警鐘を鳴らした。
　ウクライナ当局によると、現時点で２０００万トン以上の食料が国内に滞留している。
　オデーサの港と倉庫に保管されている穀物は４００トン以上。すべて昨シーズンの収穫だ。ヘンナディ・トゥルハノフ市長は「今シーズンの収穫物を貯蔵することはできないだろう」「（封鎖が続けば）人々は飢えて死ぬだけだ」と語る。

■見落とされた海洋安全保障

　ウクライナ陸軍は、兵力と装備で上回る敵を相手に粘る力があることを証明した。しかし、制海権はロシア軍がほぼ手中に収めている。
　「残念ながら、ウクライナは伝統的に、海洋安全保障の問題を見落としてきた」。同国のアンドリー・ザゴロドニュク元国防相は、米シンクタンク「大西洋評議会」の報告書でこう指摘した。「民主主義世界は、陸上でのロシアの侵略に対抗するためウクライナの武装化に取り組んできたが、海上での戦争への国際的な関与は陸上と比べて限られている」
　ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー大統領は先週末、「ウクライナへの航路を解放しなければ、食料危機が起きるだろう」と述べ、ロシアを倒し海上封鎖を終わらせるための「適切な兵器」を提供するよう国際社会に訴えた。
　だが、たとえ必要な兵器が供与されたとしても、戦闘が激化すれば貿易再開までには何か月もかかるだろう。海運会社が紛争地帯に船団を送るとは考えにくい。
　マトゥリャクさんのように旧ソ連に生まれ、かつてロシアと兄弟のような絆を感じていた農業従事者にとって、今回の紛争とその影響について心の折り合いをつけるのは難しい。
　「もちろん、すべての問題が外交的・平和的な手段で解決できればよい。しかし、人々の持つ普通の価値観を、ロシアが理解していないことを私たちは目の当たりにしている」と、マトゥリャクさんは語った。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2022/05/27-13:06）

Staring out over Ukraine's seemingly endless wheat fields near Odessa, Dmitriy Matulyak has a difficult time imagining that so many people may starve soon as another bountiful harvest nears.
The war has been hard on the 62-year-old farmer.
On the first day of invasion, an airstrike hit one of his warehouses, incinerating over 400 tonnes of animal feed as Russian troops fanned out from their bases in the Crimean Peninsula and seized large chunks of southern Ukraine.
My voice trembles and tears come to my eyes because of how many people I know that have already died, how many relatives are suffering and how many have gone abroad, he tells AFP.
But worse may still lie ahead.
The Russians never stormed the beaches in the nearby port of Odessa as feared, but their ongoing blockade of the Black Sea has been ruinous -- unleashing economic devastation in Ukraine and threatening famine elsewhere.
Silos and ports across Ukraine are now brimming with millions of tonnes of grain with nowhere to go as the country is slowly suffocated by the siege.
In Ukraine's balmy south, the summer harvest is set to begin in the coming weeks, but few know where exactly they will put this season's wheat, stirring fears that large portions of the grain and other food products will be left to rot.
It's savagery for one country to have food spoiling like this and for other people to be left poor and hungry, says Matulyak. This is an atrocity. It?s savagery. There is no other way to put it.
- 'Malnutrition, mass hunger and famine' -
While much of the war's focus remains on the grinding battle of attrition in eastern Ukraine, the Black Sea blockade may trigger the most wide ranging consequences from the conflict yet, with experts issuing increasingly dire warnings about surging food prices and potential famine.
Before the Russian invasion, Ukraine served as one of the world's leading breadbaskets -- exporting roughly 4.5 million tonnes of agricultural produce per month through its ports, including 12 percent of the planet's wheat, 15 percent of its corn, and half of its sunflower oil.
The war and its ongoing blockade has largely brought the trade to a halt, with alternative routes by rail and truck unable to tackle the enormous logistical and financial hurdles needed to move so much produce to international markets.
The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been unequivocal on the matter, saying last week that the war threatens to tip tens of millions of people over the edge into food insecurity.
What might follow would be malnutrition, mass hunger and famine, in a crisis that could last for years, he warned.
To date, over 20 million tonnes of food products remain stuck in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian authorities.
In southern Odessa, the crisis can be felt acutely. The port remains idle with nothing coming in or going out for months now.
For generations, the economic might of Eastern Europe's fertile agricultural heartlands were largely marshalled in Odessa, with its sprawling port and rail hub connecting the region?s wheat fields to the coast.
That centuries-old link has now been severed.
The city's port and warehouses are currently holding more than four million tonnes of grain, all of which came from the last harvest.
We won't be able to store this new harvest in any way, that's the problem, says Odessa mayor Gennady Trukhanov.
People will simply die of hunger, he says if the blockade continues.
- 'Relevant weapons' -
Ukraine's economy has also been ravaged as a result, with World Bank estimates predicting the war and crippling naval siege would likely trigger a 45 percent decline in the country's GDP this year.
And while Ukraine's land forces have proven resilient against a larger, better armed enemy, the Russians continue to enjoy almost complete superiority at sea.
Unfortunately, Ukraine has traditionally overlooked the issue of maritime security, explained the country's former defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk in a paper published by the Atlantic Council.
While the democratic world has taken up the challenge of arming Ukraine to resist Russian aggression on land, international involvement in the war at sea has been more limited.
Over the weekend, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the world to intervene, begging for the relevant weapons that could help bring the Russians to heel and end the blockade.
It will create a food crisis if we do not unblock the routes for Ukraine, do not help the countries of Africa, Europe, Asia, which need these food products, the president argued.
But even if given the needed arms, it could take months or longer to kickstart trade again if the war rages on, with shipping companies unlikely to send their fleets into an active conflict zone.
For farmers like Matulyak who were born in the Soviet Union and once enjoyed brotherly ties to Russia, the ongoing conflict and its fallout is hard to swallow.
Of course it would be good if all these issues could be resolved by some diplomatic peaceful means, he says. But we have already seen that Russia does not understand the normal values people hold.