【解説】ロシア、「戦術核」使用の可能性は

【ＡＦＰ＝時事】欧州の紛争で小型核兵器が使用されるのではないかとの懸念が浮上してきた。ロシアのウクライナ侵攻までは、想像だにされなかったことだ。ウラジーミル・プーチン大統領が「戦術核」の使用に踏み切る可能性について、Ｑ＆Ａ形式でまとめた。（写真はクリミア・シンフェロポリに掲示される、ロシアのウラジーミル・プーチン大統領の巨大ポスター）
Ｑ：懸念なぜ生じた
Ａ：プーチン大統領はウクライナ侵攻開始から４日目の先月２７日、核抑止力部隊を厳戒態勢に移行するよう命令した。西側の大半の専門家はこの動きについて、米国やその同盟国が既存の経済制裁や武器供与の枠を超えて対ウクライナ支援を拡大するのをけん制する狙いがあると分析している。

Ｑ：ロシアの核兵力の規模、使用が懸念される核の種類は
Ａ：スウェーデンのストックホルム国際平和研究所（ＳＩＰＲＩ）によると、ロシアが保有する核弾頭は６２５５発と、世界最多だ。
　専門家はウクライナで想定されるリスクについて、地球全体に脅威を及ぼす大型の「戦略核兵器」の使用はないとみている。プーチン大統領が、欧州全体を脅かさずに局所的な破壊にとどめる小型弾頭を搭載した「戦術核兵器」の使用を検討する可能性はあるとみられている。
　戦術核の威力は大小さまざまだ。起爆させるのが地上か空中かによっても破壊力は異なる。

Ｑ：核兵器は最終手段ではないのか
Ａ：核兵器は最終手段だ。しかし、ロシア側が戦闘で大敗を喫したり、国内の経済問題が深刻化したりしてプーチン氏の政治生命が脅かされ、窮地に追い込まれたと感じる可能性もある。ウクライナや西側諸国が危惧しているのはその点だ。
　戦術核を使う場合、ウクライナ軍の抵抗を打ち砕き、ウォロディミル・ゼレンスキー大統領に降伏を強いるのが狙いと考えられる。
　ロシア問題に特化したシンクタンク「リドル」の専門家、パベル・ルージン氏は、第１段階としては、威嚇行動として、戦術核が海上ないし非居住地域で使用され得ると予想。「それでも敵が戦闘継続の意思を示せば、敵に対して直接使用される可能性がある」とし、都市が標的とされる恐れもあるとの見方を示した。

Ｑ：ロシア大統領府の言い分は
Ａ：ロシアのドミトリー・ペスコフ大統領報道官は２２日、米ＣＮＮのインタビューで、核兵器の使用に関する質問を受け、ロシアが万一、「存亡の危機」に直面した場合には、自国の規定に従って核兵器を使用することもあり得ると答えた。

Ｑ：杞憂（きゆう）にすぎないのか
Ａ：そうかもしれない。英シンクタンク「国際戦略研究所（ＩＩＳＳ）」の軍備管理の専門家ウィリアム・アルバーク氏は、プーチン大統領が戦術核を使用する可能性を疑問視する。アルバーク氏は「核兵器使用が招く政治的コストはとてつもなく大きい。現在のわずかな支持さえ失うだろう。インドも手を引かざるを得ない。中国も同じだ」と分析する。
　プーチン大統領が核の発射ボタンを押すには、セルゲイ・ショイグ国防相、ワレリー・ゲラシモフ参謀総長いずれかの承認が必要となる。
　北大西洋条約機構（ＮＡＴＯ）もしくは米国の直接の参戦につながる可能性もあり、それこそロシアが回避したいシナリオだと指摘する専門家もいる。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2022/03/29-10:31）

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has raised the spectre of something considered almost unthinkable until recently: the use of a small nuclear weapon during a conflict in Europe.
AFP looks at the risk that Russian President Vladimir Putin would authorise a so-called tactical nuclear strike against a country he has repeatedly claimed forms one people with Russia.
- Why is there concern? -
On February 27, three days after the start of the invasion, Putin ordered his defence chiefs to put Russia's nuclear forces on high alert in a highly choreographed meeting in front of TV cameras.
Western countries quickly condemned the move, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling it provocative and the height of irresponsibility.
Most Western analysts believe the rhetoric was designed to deter the United States and its allies from increasing their support for Ukraine beyond existing economic sanctions and weapons supplies.
Not only is this meant to instil fear in the whole world; it's also meant to scare anyone from helping in Ukraine, Beatrice Fihn, who leads the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, told AFP.
- How big is Russia's nuclear arsenal? -
Russia has the largest number of nuclear warheads of any country, according to the SIPRI peace research institute in Stockholm, which puts the figure at 6,255.
Experts say the risk in Ukraine is not the deployment of a giant strategic weapon, which pose a threat to the entire planet.
Instead, Putin might be tempted to use a tactical weapon, with a smaller warhead that causes localised devastation but without threatening life across Europe.
These weapons come in various sizes, and their impact depends on whether they explode at ground level or above the Earth's surface.
US President Joe Biden also claimed this week that Moscow was considering the use of chemical and biological weapons in Ukraine.
Chemical weapons would not change the course of the war. A tactical nuclear weapon that reduces a Ukrainian city to rubble? Yes, Mathieu Boulegue, an analyst at the London-based Chatham House, told AFP.
- Aren't nuclear weapons a last resort? -
Yes, but Ukraine and Western capitals fear that Putin finds himself cornered, sustaining major battlefield losses and economic problems at home that put his political survival in doubt.
A tactical nuclear strike would be intended to break the resistance of Ukrainian forces and force President Volodymyr Zelensky to surrender.
Pavel Luzin, an expert at the Russia-focused think-tank Riddle, said the first step would see a tactical weapon used over the sea or an uninhabited area, as an act of intimidation.
After that, if the adversary still wants to fight, it may be used against the adversary in the direct way, he said -- meaning over a city.
Christopher Chivvis, who served as the top US intelligence official for Europe from 2018 to 2021, said recently that there were only two paths to end the war.
One, continued escalation, potentially across the nuclear threshold; the other, a bitter peace imposed on a defeated Ukraine, he wrote in The Guardian newspaper.
- What does the Kremlin say? -
On Tuesday, Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov was asked three times by CNN interviewer Christiane Amanpour to rule out the use of nuclear weapons.
He pointed instead to Russia's nuclear doctrine published in 2020, in which you can read all the reasons for nuclear arms to be used.
If it is as an existential threat for our country, then it can be used in accordance with our concept, Peskov said.
Recent claims from the Kremlin about Ukraine developing chemical, biological or even nuclear weapons -- dismissed as disinformation by Western officials -- are a cause for concern.
The use of a weapon of mass destruction against Russia would be a doctrinal justification for responding with a nuclear weapon, said Kristin Ven Bruusgaard, an expert on Russia's nuclear doctrine at the University of Oslo.
- Is this just alarmism? -
Possibly. William Alberque, an expert on arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a British think-tank, told AFP that he doubted Putin would deploy tactical nuclear arms.
The political cost of the use of nuclear weapons would be outrageous. He would lose the little support he still has. Indians would have to pull out. The Chinese as well, he said.
Ven Bruusgaard suggested that Putin's concern about his own place in history might deter him.
He would also need approval to launch one from either Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu or Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
The military repercussions would be unpredictable to say the least and potentially extremely dangerous for Russia, she said, since NATO or the United States might feel obliged to enter the conflict directly.
That's the exact scenario that Russia is trying to avoid, she said.