２０２１年の世界のＣＯ２排出量、コロナ前に逆戻り

【グラスゴーＡＦＰ＝時事】化石燃料の燃焼を主因とした世界の二酸化炭素（ＣＯ２）の年間排出量は、２０２１年には新型コロナウイルス流行前の水準に戻るとする報告書を、地球温暖化の国際研究「グローバル・カーボン・プロジェクト（ＧＣＰ）」が４日発表した。中国の排出量が増加し、全体の３分の１近くを占めるとしている。（写真は資料写真）
　国連（ＵＮ）気候変動枠組み条約第２６回締約国会議（ＣＯＰ２６）が開催される中で発表されたＧＣＰの年次報告書によると、２０２１年の年間ＣＯ２排出量は、過去最多を記録した２０１９年の水準をわずかに下回る見通し。ただ、新型コロナ流行に伴う経済の減速によって昨年減少した天然ガスと石炭から生じる排出量は、減少分以上に増加するとみられる。
　他国に先駆けて経済を回復させた中国は、２０２１年の世界の全排出量の３１％を占めるという。
　石油から生じる排出量は２０１９年水準を大きく下回るが、交通・航空部門がコロナ禍の混乱から復活するにつれて急増する可能性がある。
　報告書の執筆に関わった英イーストアングリア大学のコリーヌ・ルケレ教授（気候変動科学）は、「運輸部門が回復を続けていることから、２０２２年の排出量が全体的に増加する可能性は否定できない」とＡＦＰに語った。
　数兆ドルに及ぶ新型コロナ復興資金のうち、環境に配慮した持続可能な開発に充てられたのはほんのわずかで、この傾向は今も続いているとルケレ氏は指摘。「現段階の経済刺激策は消費を促進することで、これがまさに産業、生産、石炭消費を後押ししている」と述べた。
　一方、報告書には前向きな兆候も記されている。米国、日本、ドイツ、フランス、英国など直近１０年間で世界の排出量の４分の１を占めた２３か国は、力強い成長と大幅な排出量削減が同時に見られ、この二つは切り離して実現可能だということが示された。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】

〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2021/11/05-12:33）

Global CO2 emissions caused mainly by burning fossil fuels are set to rebound in 2021 to pre-Covid levels, with China's share increasing to nearly a third of the total, according to an assessment published Thursday.
Overall, CO2 pollution this year will be just shy of the record set in 2019, according to the annual report from the Global Carbon Project consortium, released as nearly 200 nations at the COP26 climate summit confront the threat of catastrophic warming.
Emissions from gas and highly polluting coal will rise this year by more than they dropped in 2020 due to the pandemic-driven economic slowdown.
Capping the rise in global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels -- as per the Paris Agreement -- would limit mortality and damage, but requires slashing carbon emissions nearly in half by 2030 and to net zero by 2050, the UN's climate science authority has warned.
This report is a reality check, co-author Corrine Le Querre, a professor of climate change science at Britain's University of East Anglia, told AFP.
It shows what's happening in the real world while we are here in Glasgow talking about tackling climate change.
- Waiting for the peak -
The new report will come as bad news at the 13-day COP26 meeting, where a diplomatic spat saw the United States accuse China and Russia of failing to step up their climate action ambitions.
China on its own will account for 31 percent of global emissions this year after its economy accelerated out of the economic lull ahead of others.
Carbon pollution from oil remains well below 2019 levels, but could surge as the transport and aviation sectors recover from pandemic disruption, said the study in the journal Earth System Science Data.
Taken together, the findings mean that future C02 emissions could eclipse the 40-billion tonne record set in 2019, which some have predicted -- and many hoped -- would be a peak.
We cannot rule out more overall growth of emissions in 2022 as the transport sector continues to recover, Le Quere said. We are bound to have ups and downs over the next few years.
The latest figures are in line with a recent International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that emissions from energy would hit an all-time high in 2023, with no clear peak in sight.
Perhaps we will start talking about peak emissions in 2023 or 2024?, said Glen Peters, research director at the Centre for International Climate Research in Oslo and a co-author of the report.
- China surge -
Looking at the national level, the report found a return to pre-Covid patterns among the world top four carbon polluters, which account for 60 percent of global CO2 emissions.
In China -- which has pledged to peak its emissions by 2030, and reach net-zero by 2060 -- economic growth spurred by government incentives will see emissions grow 5.5 percent this year compared to 2019, the last year not affected by Covid.
The rebound in China was robust, said Peters. It looks like China is in a phase of strong growth again.
India, the world's other emerging giant, is on track for a similar percentage increase in carbon pollution, and will account for seven percent of the total this year.
2021 emissions in the US and EU will drop 3.7 and 4.2 percent, respectively, and their share of global emissions will stand at 14 and 7 percent.
The wild card that could determine how quickly the world can finally bend the emissions downward is coal, the report made clear.
Mostly it's about coal now, said Le Quere. This is where the big uncertainties are.
Very little of the trillions of dollars chanelled to post-pandemic recovery was earmarked for green development, a trend that is continuing, she said.
- 'It is possible' -
Economic incentives now are about driving consumption, and this is really pushing industry, production and coal.
Worldwide, decarbonisation -- mainly switching from fossil fuels to renewable -- continues to be outpaced by the demand for energy, adding to emissions.
But the report was not bereft of positive signals.
Twenty-three countries accounting for a quarter of global emissions over the last decade -- including the US, Japan, Germany, France and Britain -- simultaneously saw strong growth and a significant decline in emissions, showing that the two can be decoupled.
For 15 of these nations, this held true even when the carbon emissions from the production of imported goods was included.
This shows that these countries know how to do it, they demonstrate it's possible.
But the finding makes clear how daunting the Paris Agreement goals are, she added.
If you want to reach net zero by 2050, you need to decrease emissions, on average, by 1.4 billion tonnes per year, she said.
In 2020, during the pandemic, we had a drop of 1.6 billion tonnes -- this shows you the scale of the action required.