中国が仕掛けるワクチン外交　「健康のシルクロード」建設着々

【北京ＡＦＰ＝時事】世界の富裕国が供給量に限りのある大手製薬会社の新型コロナウイルスワクチン確保に奔走する中で、中国は積極的に、資金力の弱い国々に中国製ワクチンの提供を申し出ている。だが、その気前の良さは100％利他的なものとはいえない。中国政府が求めているのは外交上の長期的な見返りだ。（写真は中国・北京にある製薬会社シノバック・バイオテックの新型コロナウイルスワクチン製造施設で、ワクチンを検査するスタッフ）
　この戦略には、新型コロナ流行初期の中国政府の対応への怒りや批判をかわし、中国のバイオテクノロジー企業の知名度を上げ、アジア内外での中国の影響力を強化・拡大するなど、複数のメリットがある。
　「中国が、悪化したイメージの回復を図ってワクチン外交を展開しているのは間違いない」と、米外交問題評議会（ＣＦＲ）上級フェローの黄延中氏はＡＦＰに指摘した。ワクチン外交は「中国の世界的影響力を増大し、地政学的な諸問題を（中略）解消するツールとなりつつある」という。

■米国不在の保健分野をリード
　中国政府はパンデミック（世界的な大流行）の初期には、マスクや防護服などの大量輸出を急ぎ、医療が逼迫（ひっぱく）していた欧州・アフリカ各地に医療チームを派遣した。そして今、欧米の製薬会社がワクチンの供給を始める中で、自国製ワクチンの大量供給を開始し、次々と合意を結んでいる。相手国には、中国との関係がぎくしゃくしている国も含まれている。
　中国の外交官がワクチン供給合意を取り付けたマレーシアとフィリピンは、いずれも南シナ海への中国進出に苦言を呈してきた。８月に李克強首相がワクチン優先供給を約束したメコン川流域の国々は、中国が上流に建設したダムの影響でひどい渇水に見舞われ、干ばつが悪化している。
　「公益」を掲げて世界中に中国製ワクチンを提供する習近平国家主席の動きは、中国こそが世界の保健分野を主導する国だとアピールする機会になっていると黄氏は言う。米国がドナルド・トランプ大統領の「米国第一主義」の下でなおざりにしてきた役割を、中国がここぞと肩代わりした格好だ。

■「健康のシルクロード」
　中国は、低・中所得国のワクチン市場のわずか１５％を獲得しただけで約２８億ドル（約２９００億円）の純利益を見込めると、香港の安信証券は試算する。
　全世界でワクチン接種を推進するためには、超低温での輸送を可能にする低温物流網（コールドチェーン）や保管施設の整備も必要だが、ＣＦＲのカーク・ランカスター氏はこれらの事業について、習氏が１兆ドル（約１０３兆円）を投じて推進する巨大経済圏構想「一帯一路」にうまく調和すると指摘する。
　すでに電子商取引（ＥＣ）大手アリババ（阿里巴巴）は、アフリカ・中東へのワクチン供給拠点となる倉庫をエチオピアとアラブ首長国連邦（ＵＡＥ）・ドバイに建設した。また、中国政府はブラジル、モロッコ、インドネシアなどにワクチン製造施設を建設しているほか、中南米諸国に１０億ドル（約１０３０億円）規模の資金提供を約束している。これらのインフラを、中国企業はコロナ後に利用できる。
　「『健康のシルクロード』と銘打たれた一連の取り組みは全て、中国の国際的な評判を回復しつつ、中国企業向けの新たな市場を開拓することにつながっている」とランカスター氏は語った。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2020/12/17-16:45）

As wealthy countries scramble to buy up the limited supply of big-name coronavirus vaccines, China is stepping in to offer its homegrown jabs to poorer countries. But the largesse is not entirely altruistic, with Beijing hoping for a long-term diplomatic return.
The strategy carries multiple possible benefits: deflecting anger and criticism over China's early handling of the pandemic, raising the profile of its biotech firms, and both strengthening and extending influence in Asia and beyond.
There is no doubt China is practising vaccine diplomacy in an effort to repair its tarnished image, Huang Yanzhong, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), told AFP.
It has also become a tool to increase China's global influence and iron out... geopolitical issues.
Stung by criticism of its handling of the emergence of the coronavirus in Wuhan, China has made much of its own ability to get its own outbreak under control, with state media carrying pictures of life-as-normal at pool parties and sporting events.
In the early months of the pandemic, Beijing hurried to export millions of masks and gowns, and sent medical teams to help strained healthcare systems in Europe and Africa.
Now, with major Western pharmaceutical companies beginning to bring their vaccines to market, China is rolling out its own versions -- signing agreements to supply millions of doses, including to countries that have a sometimes-prickly relationship with Beijing.
- Seizing the mantle -
Chinese diplomats have inked deals with Malaysia and the Philippines, both of which have previously complained about Beijing's expansionist ambitions in the South China Sea.
In August, Premier Li Keqiang promised priority vaccine access to countries along the Mekong river, where a devastating drought has been worsened by Chinese dams built upstream.
China's 'vaccine diplomacy' is not unconditional, Ardhitya Eduard Yeremia and Klaus Heinrich Raditio said in a paper published this month by the Singapore-based Yusof Ishak institute.
Beijing may use its vaccine donations to advance its regional agenda, particularly on sensitive issues such as its claims in the South China Sea, they added.
The move by President Xi Jinping to offer up a Chinese vaccine worldwide as a public good also allows Beijing to paint itself as a leader in global health, said the CFR's Huang, seizing a mantle left untended as the US retreated under Donald Trump's America First doctrine.
Washington is notably absent from a global alliance of 189 countries that have pledged to distribute vaccines equitably. Beijing signed up in October as its drugmakers launched final stage trials.
But this programme has only secured enough doses to cover 20 percent of the population of low- and middle-income countries by the end of next year -- offering a commercial opportunity.
China is ramping up production facilities to make one billion coronavirus shots next year -- and, having largely tamed the outbreak at home, it will have a surplus to sell.
- 'Health silk road' -
If China can capture just 15 percent of the market in middle and low-income countries, it would net around $2.8 billion in sales, according to an estimate by Essence Securities, a Hong Kong-based brokerage firm.
Everyone is clamouring for a vaccine and Beijing is in a good position to tap gold at the bottom of the pyramid, said an analyst at the company, who declined to be named.
The global inoculation drive also requires storage facilities and cold chains to transport the doses.
Such projects dovetail nicely with Xi's $1 trillion infrastructure push -- the Belt and Road Initiative -- which has otherwise taken a hit because of the pandemic, said Kirk Lancaster of the CFR.
E-commerce giant Alibaba has already built warehouses in Ethiopia and Dubai that will serve as vaccine distribution hubs for Africa and the Middle East.
Beijing is constructing vaccine production facilities in countries like Brazil, Morocco and Indonesia that have participated in global trials by Chinese drugmakers.
And China has promised a $1 billion loan to Latin American and Caribbean nations to fund procurement.
Chinese firms will be able to piggyback on this infrastructure further down the line.
All these efforts, branded as the 'Health Silk Road', are helping China redeem its national reputation while opening up new markets for its companies, Lancaster said.
- Trust gap -
However, there is a fly in the ointment.
China has four vaccines in the final stages of development, and is well advanced with mass human testing in a number of countries, including Brazil, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey.
Millions more at home have already received a jab.
But unlike vaccines being developed by Moderna, AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson, little information has been published about the safety or efficacy of Chinese vaccines.
The country's communist authorities -- who control everything from universities to regulators -- are allergic to public scrutiny.
The lack of transparency in China's system means that thousands (inside the country) have already received Chinese vaccines without the relevant testing data having being published, Natasha Kassam, a China policy analyst at the Lowy Institute, said.
She said that the lack of data will cause alarm during a global rollout.
Chinese vaccine makers also have chequered reputations, after major scandals at home involving expired or poor quality products.
All of which means overseas buyers are cautious.
Chinese vaccine frontrunners Sinovac and Sinopharm had pre-orders for fewer than 500 million doses by mid-November, according to data from London consultancy Airfinity -- mostly from countries that have participated in trials.
AstraZeneca, meanwhile, has pre-orders for 2.4 billion doses, and Pfizer has about half a billion orders.
Wider trust in Beijing has also plummeted this year, with a 14-nation study by the Pew Research Center finding a sharp deterioration in perceptions of the country.
(Societies) that have increasing distrust in China are less likely to trust a Chinese-led vaccine candidate, Kassam said.