２０２４年は観測史上最も暑い年 ＥＵ監視機関 「事実上確実」

【パリＡＦＰ＝時事】２０２４年は観測史上最も暑い年になることが「事実上確実」だとする予想を、欧州連合（ＥＵ）の気候監視ネットワーク「コペルニクス気候変動サービス（Ｃ３Ｓ）」が９日、発表した。（写真は資料写真）
　Ｃ３Ｓは、前例のない今年の異常高温により１～１１月の世界平均気温が上がったとし、「２０２４年が記録上最も暑い年になることは、この時点で事実上確実だ」と述べた。観測史上最も暑かった年となった昨年の気温を上回ることになる。
　今年はスペインとケニアで致命的な洪水、米国とフィリピンで激しい熱帯暴風雨、南米全域で深刻な干ばつと山火事が発生した。
　スイスの再保険大手「スイス・リー」は、今年の自然災害による経済損失は計３１００億ドル（約４７兆円）に上ると推計している。
　発展途上国は特に気候変動の影響に脆弱（ぜいじゃく）で、その対策費として２０３５年までに年１．３兆ドル（約１９５兆円）の外部援助が必要になるとされている。
　１１月に行われた国連気候変動枠組み条約締約国会議（ＣＯＰ２９）で、先進国は同年までに年３０００億ドル（約４５兆円）の支援を約束したが、この額は極めて不十分だと批判されている。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2024/12/09-21:01）

This year is effectively certain to be the hottest on record and the first above a critical threshold to protect the planet from dangerously overheating, Europe's climate monitor said Monday.
The new benchmark affirmed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service caps a year in which countries rich and poor were hammered by disasters that scientists have linked to humanity's role in Earth's rapid warming.
Copernicus said an unprecedented spell of extraordinary heat had pushed average global temperatures so high between January and November that this year was sure to eclipse 2023 as the hottest yet.
At this point, it is effectively certain that 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record, the EU agency said in its monthly bulletin.
In another grim milestone, 2024 will be the first calendar year more than 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial times before humanity started burning large volumes of fossil fuels.
Scientists warn that exceeding 1.5C over a decades-long period would greatly imperil the planet, and the world agreed under the Paris climate accord to strive to limit warming to this safer threshold.
Copernicus Climate Change Service deputy director Samantha Burgess said a single year above 1.5C does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever.
- Cost of inaction -
The world is nowhere near on track to meeting the 1.5C target.
In October, the UN said the current direction of climate action would result in a catastrophic 3.1C of warming.
Emissions from fossil fuels keep rising despite a global pledge to move the world away from coal, oil and gas.
When burned, fossil fuels release greenhouse gases that warm Earth's oceans and atmosphere, disrupting climate patterns and the water cycle.
Scientists say that global warming is making extreme weather events more frequent and ferocious, and even at present levels climate change is taking its toll.
2024 saw deadly flooding in Spain and Kenya, violent tropical storms in the United States and the Philippines, and severe drought and wildfires across South America.
In total, disasters caused $310 billion in economic losses in 2024, Zurich-based insurance giant Swiss Re said this month.
Developing countries are particularly vulnerable and by 2035 will need $1.3 trillion a year in outside assistance to cope with climate change.
At UN climate talks in November, wealthy countries committed $300 billion annually by 2035, an amount decried as woefully inadequate.
- 'Exceptional' -
Copernicus uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations to aid its climate calculations.
Its records go back to 1940 but other sources of climate data -- such as ice cores, tree rings and coral skeletons -- allow scientists to expand their conclusions using evidence from much further in the past.
Scientists say the period being lived through right now is likely the warmest the Earth has been for the last 125,000 years.
Even by these standards, the extraordinary heat witnessed since mid-2023 has sparked scientific debate.
2024 began at the peak of El Nino, a natural phenomenon that moves around warm water, helping raise global temperatures.
But scientists said that such cyclical variability could not alone explain the record-breaking heat in the atmosphere and seas.
After the latest El Nino, temperatures were starting to fall but very slowly, and the causes will have to be analysed, Robert Vautard, a scientist of the IPCC, the UN's expert climate advisory body, told AFP.
Last week, a study published in the peer-reviewed journal Science suggested a lack of low-lying clouds could be causing less heat to bounce back into space.
A separate paper in May explored the possibility that cleaner-burning shipping fuels were releasing less mirror-like particles into clouds, dimming their reflectivity.
Copernicus climate scientist Julien Nicolas said recent years were clearly exceptional.
As we get more data, we will hopefully better understand what happened, he told AFP.