【解説】北朝鮮の弱点は空軍か　人民軍の航空・防空部隊を分析

【ソウルＡＦＰ＝時事】北朝鮮政府は米韓合同軍事演習を侵略の予行演習と呼んで非難してきたが、特に空軍の訓練に神経をとがらせているのは、ハイテク戦闘機や十分な訓練を受けたパイロットが足りず、空軍が弱点となっているためだと専門家はみている。朝鮮人民軍の航空・防空部隊の戦力についてまとめた。（写真は北朝鮮・元山で開催されたエアショーでスホイ機の前に立つパイロット。資料写真）

■保有する航空機の数
　米国防総省国防情報局（ＤＩＡ）の昨年の報告によれば、朝鮮人民軍の航空・防空部隊は戦闘機９００機以上、輸送機３００機、ヘリコプター３００機を保有しているとみられている。
　ただし、戦闘機や爆撃機の大半は、数十年前に旧ソ連や中国から調達したもので、かなり古い。保有機の中で最も強力とされる旧ソ連製の戦闘機ミグ２９でさえも、導入時期は１９８０年代後半だ。
　英シンクタンク・国際戦略研究所（ＩＩＳＳ）のジョセフ・デンプシー研究員はＡＦＰに対し、長期保管されている機体や退役機の割合は不明で、現役機はこの推計よりもさらに少ないだろうと指摘。北朝鮮は「老朽化した」航空機をローテーションさせているとの見方を示した。

■「地上の空軍」
　ＩＩＳＳの２０２０年の報告書は、北朝鮮には「燃料購入費や維持費が不足し、パイロットを適切に訓練する余裕もない」と指摘している。専門家によれば、燃料不足により飛行時間が不十分で、パイロットは演習どころか戦闘態勢も維持できない状態にある。
　ＤＩＡの推計では、北朝鮮の戦闘機パイロットの年間飛行時間は１５～２５時間程度。米韓空軍で報告されている平均値よりはるかに短い。
　脱北して韓国の首都ソウルで研究者として活動する安燦一（アン・チャンイル）氏はＡＦＰに、「北朝鮮の空軍はまともな訓練をほとんど受けていない『地上の空軍』と言っても過言ではない」と語った。

■空軍の戦力ダウンの理由
　韓国軍の歴史を扱う研究所が２０１３年に発表した報告書によると、１９７０年代の北朝鮮は韓国の「２倍の航空戦力」を誇っていた。
　しかし、財政・軍事面で大きな後ろ盾になっていたソ連の崩壊と自国経済の悪化により、北朝鮮は１９９０年代に困窮。
　韓国軍の退役将校、チョン・インブン氏はＡＦＰに、北朝鮮は１９９１年に韓国と国交を結んだロシアに軍事支援を打ち切られ、さらに核兵器やミサイル開発で厳しい制裁を受けたことで通常戦力の増強・維持費の確保が困難になったために「核開発に専念することにしたのだ」と話した。

■米韓空軍と戦ったら？
　米トロイ大学韓国校上級講師のダニエル・ピンクストン氏は「万が一、米韓合同軍との激しい戦闘になれば（中略）北朝鮮の航空・防空部隊はひとたまりもないだろう」と指摘する。
　先ごろ行われた米韓合同航空訓練「ビジラント・ストーム」でも、資金力や技術の差が浮き彫りになった。米韓両軍が導入したのは、北朝鮮が保有する旧ソ連時代の戦闘機とは対照的な最新鋭機。第５世代のステルス戦闘機Ｆ３５やＢ１Ｂ戦略爆撃機、電子戦機、空中給油機などだ。
　北朝鮮が最近行った弾道ミサイル発射の多くは、敵国の空軍基地への攻撃をシミュレーションしたものだった。
　韓国・世宗研究所の張成昌氏は「北朝鮮は空軍力が弱いため、まずは相手の空軍基地を攻撃して無力化することが重要だと捉えている」との考えを示した。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2022/12/05-13:21）

North Korea on Tuesday described its record-breaking blitz of missile launches last week as a just counteraction to the biggest-ever US-South Korea air exercises.
Pyongyang has long condemned joint military exercises by Seoul and Washington, calling them rehearsals for an invasion -- but it has appeared especially sensitive to air force drills.
That is because North Korea's air force is the weakest link in its military, experts say.
Here is a look at the service, officially known as the Korean People's Army (KPA) Air and Anti-Air Force:
-How many planes does it have?-
The KPA air force has more than 900 combat aircraft, 300 transport planes and 300 helicopters, according to an assessment published last year by the Pentagon's Defense Intelligence Agency.
But most of its fighters and bombers are either obsolete or near-obsolete, acquired decades ago mainly from the Soviet Union and China.
Even the most potent jets in its fleet, the Soviet-designed MiG-29s, were procured in the late 1980s.
The on paper estimates do not represent the smaller 'active' fleet, with an unknown proportion in long-term storage or withdrawn, unlikely to ever fly again, Joseph Dempsey, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), told AFP.
North Korea is believed to be rotating its ageing to obsolete fleet in and out of storage to keep them serviceable but also manage lifespan, he added.
-What about its pilots?-
North Korea does not have the capacity to pay for enough fuel, cover maintenance costs or adequately train its pilots, according to a 2020 IISS report.
Without enough fuel and therefore enough flight time, its pilots cannot learn or even maintain combat readiness, analysts say.
North Korean combat pilots get as little as 15-25 hours in the air every year, the DIA estimated.
That is far lower than the reported average in the US and South Korean air forces.
The North Korean air force is so far behind that it is simply incomparable to other countries, North Korean studies scholar Ahn Chan-il told AFP.
It is no exaggeration to say that the North's air force is an 'air force on the ground' that almost never gets any proper training.
-How did it become so weak?-
North Korea boasted about twice the air power of the South in the 1970s, according to a 2013 report by Seoul's Institute for Military History.
The then-strong North Korean air force sent help to Hanoi in the Vietnam War and to Syria and Egypt during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, it said.
But the demise of the Soviet Union -- a critical source of financial and military support -- along with the deterioration of its own economy left North Korea deeply impoverished by the 1990s.
Russia eventually established diplomatic ties with Seoul (in 1991) and partly because of it, Moscow decided not to provide the North the kind of military support the Soviets used to offer, Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean army general, told AFP.
Pyongyang was also hit with crippling sanctions over its nuclear weapons and missile programmes, making it even more difficult to find the resources to build up and maintain modern conventional forces.
North Korea eventually decided to fully focus on developing its nuclear programme instead, Chun told AFP.
This was a strategic decision on Pyongyang's part, added Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.
The best card for North Korea to negotiate with the world is nuclear weapons.
-How does it compare with US, S. Korean air forces?-
In the unlikely event of air combat with South Korea or the United States, the North Korean air force would be severely overmatched, said Daniel Pinkston, a senior lecturer at Troy University in Seoul.
In an intense conflict with combined and joint South Korean and US forces... North Korea's air power and air defences would be degraded very quickly.
The difference in resources and technology was in sharp focus last week during the joint US-South Korean air drills, dubbed Vigilant Storm, which involved some of the most advanced aircraft in the world.
Unlike North Korea's Soviet-era jets, US and South Korean pilots flew high-tech F-35 stealth fighters, B-1B long-range heavy bombers, electronic warfare jets and in-flight refuelling tankers.
Last week, many of North Korea's missile launches were drills simulating the destruction of enemy air force bases.
North Korea considers it important to strike and neutralise air bases first because their air power is weak, said Cheong Seong-chang, a researcher at the Sejong Institute.