新型ウイルスで世界の紛争激化の恐れ、専門家

【国連本部ＡＦＰ＝時事】世界の大国の関心が新型コロナウイルス感染症（COVID-19）に注がれている今、シリアやリビア、イエメン、アフガニスタン、そしてアフリカのサハラ砂漠南縁のサヘル地域などで起きている武力紛争は沈静化するのか、あるいは激化するのか？ この疑問に、専門家や国連の外交官らは、後者の深刻なリスクがあると指摘する。（写真は資料写真）
　仏パリ政治学院の国際関係専門家、ベルトラン・バディ氏は、（新型ウイルスは）ゲリラ部隊や過激派組織にとって「天の恵みであることは明らかだ」と指摘。強い力を持つものが無力になれば、弱者が強者への報復を行うのは自明のことだと述べた。
　マリ北部では最近、イスラム過激派によるとみられる攻撃でマリ兵約３０人が死亡したが、国連安全保障理事会が厳しい対応を取ることはなかった。
　新型ウイルスの流行前は外交上の強い関心の的だったリビアとシリアのイドリブ県では、今も内戦が続いている。
　こうした国々では今のところ、中国や韓国、欧州ほど大規模な新型ウイルスの影響は見られない。だが、ウイルスがひとたび内戦で荒廃した貧困国に及べば、壊滅的な被害が生じる恐れがある。
　国連は、外国からのまとまった支援が得られなければ、「数百万人」が死亡する可能性があると懸念する。
　ある外交官は、深刻な被害をもたらしているこの感染症は「制御不能」である以上、パンデミック（世界的な大流行）は必ずしも特定の武装組織を利することにはならないとし、「パンデミックで紛争が激化し、人道状況や人の移動をめぐる状況が悪化する恐れがある」と指摘した。

■紛争報道が激減する恐れも
　一方で、パンデミックが今後数か月で紛争当事者の意志や戦闘能力を弱らせる可能性もあるという一部専門家の指摘もある。
　米首都ワシントンに拠点を置く非政府組織「国際危機グループ」のロバート・マリー氏は、「戦場に部隊を送れば国家も非国家武装組織もウイルスにさらされることになり、甚だしい人命の損失に見舞われる恐れがある」として、「（ウイルスによって）国家や国連、地域機関、難民支援組織、平和維持軍などの紛争解決や予防に向けた意志や能力が損なわれるのはほぼ確実だ」と指摘した。
　また、戦闘地域へのアクセスや中立国での交渉が困難になり、資金を新型ウイルス対策に転用する必要も生じるなど、ありとあらゆる新たな障害が生じる。
　「経済的、社会的、政治的にほぼ前例のない危機に直面している時に、どこの政府がイエメンやシリア、アフガニスタン、サヘル地域などの和平実現に投資したいと思うだろうか？」とマリー氏は言う。
　報道機関が新型ウイルスばかり取り上げていれば、「こうした紛争がいかに残忍で暴力に満ちたものであっても、多くの人々はそれを目にすることも耳にすることもできない」と同氏は警告した。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2020/03/26-15:05）

Syria, Libya, Yemen, Afghanistan, the Sahel... with the great powers focused intently on the COVID-19 virus, will armed conflicts across the world decrease in severity or intensify? Experts as well as diplomats at the United Nations say there is a serious risk of the latter.
For guerrilla fighters and extremist groups, it's a clear godsend, said Bertrand Badie, a specialist in international relations at France's Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po).
When the powerful become powerless, he told AFP, one can see the revenge of the weak over the strong.
In recent days, some 30 Malian soldiers were killed in an attack in northern Mali blamed on jihadists, without drawing any sharp reaction from the Security Council.
In Libya, and Syria's Idlib region -- the object of intense diplomatic attention before the coronavirus stole the spotlight -- fighting continues.
Evoking the potentially devastating impact of #Covid-19 in #Idlib and elsewhere in Syria, the UN undersecretary-general for political affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, called on Twitter for all parties to show restraint.
If anyone -- incredibly -- still needed a reason to stop the fighting there, she added, this is it.
Martin Griffiths, the UN special envoy for Yemen, issued a similar plea: At a time when the world is struggling to fight a pandemic, the focus of the parties must shift away from fighting one another to ensuring that the population will not face even graver risks.
Up to now, these countries have not been afflicted by Covid-19 on the scale seen in China, South Korea or Europe. But the virus carries the potential, once it reaches into poor and conflict-ridden countries, of having a devastating impact.
In the absence of concerted assistance from abroad, the UN fears millions could die.
The pandemic will not necessarily favor any particular group of belligerents, one diplomat noted, because the ravaging disease has been uncontrollable.
The pandemic could lead to a worsening of conflicts, with the risk of exacerbating the humanitarian situation and population movements, he said.
- Unseen and unheard -
But the pandemic might also sap the will of the belligerents and their ability to fight in coming months, some experts said.
Throwing their troops into battle will expose both states and violent non-state groups to contamination, and thus to potentially catastrophic losses of human life, said Robert Malley, president of the Washington-based International Crisis Group.
He believes that the virus will very certainly diminish the capacity and will of states and of the international system -- the UN, regional organizations, refugees, peace-keeping forces -- to dedicate themselves to the resolution or prevention of conflicts.
It will also throw up a whole set of new obstacles, he told AFP, complicating access to conflict zones, making it harder to organize negotiations in neutral countries, and diverting financial investments to the fight against the coronavirus.
What government would want to invest in the pursuit of peace in Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, the Sahel or elsewhere when it is facing an economic, social and political crisis almost without precedent? he asked.
With the news media obsessively focused on Covid-19, Malley said, these conflicts, however brutal and violent they may be, will for many people become unseen and unheard.
At the UN, which has been struggling to respond as best it can, diplomats insist that their efforts to monitor regional crises and conflicts will continue, even if the international organization has sharply curbed its schedule of meetings.
We intend to ensure that #UNSC plays its vital role in maintaining global peace and security, Britain's interim ambassador to the UN, Jonathan Allen, wrote on Twitter. Covid-19 is the major global focus, but we have not forgotten about Syria, Libya, Yemen.
But Richard Gowan, a New York-based specialist in UN matters, expressed some doubt.
Security Council diplomats say that it is hard to get their capitals to focus on UN issues, he said.
Among non-governmental organizations (NGOs) dealing with human rights issues, like Human Rights Watch, concern is growing that whole areas of action are falling by the wayside.
One example: diplomats say the much-awaited and repeatedly delayed publication of a UN summary report on the bombing of hospitals in Syria -- originally due at the beginning of the year -- is now not expected before April, at the earliest.