４～６月期ＧＤＰ、年２．４％増　自動車生産が回復―民間予測

　民間シンクタンク１０社による４～６月期の実質ＧＤＰ（国内総生産）速報値の予測が２日までに、出そろった。１０社の平均は前期比０．６％増、この成長ペースが１年続いた場合の年率換算では２．４％増となる。認証不正問題によって停止していた自動車生産の回復が進んだことや、賃金増による所得の改善を受け、２四半期ぶりのプラス成長となりそうだ。
　内需の柱である個人消費は自動車の出荷再開などで０．６％増となるが、「物価高による下押し圧力が引き続き強い」（ニッセイ基礎研究所の斎藤太郎経済調査部長）との指摘も出ている。設備投資は０．６％増、輸出は１．９％増をそれぞれ見込む。
　先行きは、賃上げや定額減税により個人消費が押し上げられ、７～９月期はプラス成長が継続するとの見方が強い。ＧＤＰ速報値は１５日に内閣府が発表する。（2024/08/02-15:01）

Japan's real gross domestic product in April-June is believed to have increased 0.6 pct from the previous quarter, for an annualized rise of 2.4 pct, according to the latest estimates by 10 private think tanks.
   The Japanese economy is expected to post the first growth in two quarters, reflecting a rebound in automobile production, which was temporarily halted at some automakers due to vehicle testing irregularities, and an improvement in the income situation thanks to wage hikes.
   The think tanks estimated that private consumption, a pillar of domestic demand, was up 0.6 pct as vehicle shipments resumed. Still, Taro Saito of NLI Research Institute noted that private consumption is expected to remain under strong downward pressure amid rising prices.
   Corporate capital expenditures are forecast to post an increase of 0.6 pct, and exports are projected to show a rise of 1.9 pct.
   For July-September, the Japanese economy is widely expected to continue growing, with private consumption supported by wage hikes and fixed-amount tax cuts.