５四半期ぶりマイナス成長　１０～１２月期ＧＤＰ―民間予測

　民間シンクタンク１０社の２０１９年１０～１２月期の実質ＧＤＰ（国内総生産）速報値予測が３日、出そろった。各社予測の平均は前期比年率換算で３．６％減となり、消費税率引き上げや外需低迷が響き、５四半期ぶりのマイナス成長に転じる。内閣府は１７日にＧＤＰ速報値を発表する。
　１９年７～９月期の実質ＧＤＰは、米中貿易摩擦の長期化で外需が減少する中、消費税増税前の駆け込み需要や設備投資などの内需がけん引。４四半期連続でプラス成長となった。
　しかし１０～１２月期は、駆け込み需要の反動に加え、台風１９号や暖冬の影響を踏まえ、１０社はいずれも個人消費が前期を下回ると予想。製造業を中心とする設備投資の息切れも見込んだ。（2020/02/03-18:20）

Japan's real gross domestic product is believed to have dropped for the first time in five quarters in October-December 2019, due in part to a pullback in domestic demand after a tax hike, according to estimates by 10 think tanks.
   The research institute on average expect that the country's seasonally adjusted GDP in the period shrank a real 3.6 pct from the previous quarter on an annualized basis. Their estimates range from a drop of 4.4 pct to a fall of 2.3 pct. The Cabinet Office is scheduled to announce preliminary GDP data for the third quarter of fiscal 2019 on Feb. 17.
   In July-September, Japan's real GDP grew as a last-minute rise in domestic demand ahead of the consumption tax hike to 10 pct from 8 pct in October and robust capital spending by Japanese firms more than offset a fall in external demand reflecting prolonged trade friction between the United States and China.
   But all 10 institutes believe that private consumption declined in the latest quarter, citing a pullback in demand after the tax hike, damage from strong Typhoon Hagibis, which hit Japan in October, and sluggish sales of seasonal products amid relatively warm winter weather.
   In addition, they project capital expenditures, mainly by manufacturers, fell back.