新型肺炎、ＧＤＰ０．１４％押し下げ　訪日客急減、消費も打撃―民間試算

　新型肺炎は、日本経済全体に少なからず影響を及ぼしそうだ。野村総合研究所によると、訪日観光客数が急減。影響が１年続いた場合、日本の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）を０．１４％（７７６０億円）押し下げるという。
　野村総研は２００３年に重症急性呼吸器症候群（ＳＡＲＳ）が拡大した例を基に推計した。訪日客はＳＡＲＳ発生前に比べ、現在は約６倍になっていると指摘。これら訪日客がＳＡＲＳが拡大したときと同じ割合で減少すると想定して、ＧＤＰ押し下げ効果を計算した。
　第一生命経済研究所は影響期間を９カ月間とみて分析。旅行需要の減少などで「ＳＡＲＳのときを１．４倍以上上回る４８３３億円程度の名目ＧＤＰが消失する」とした。
　一方、ＳＭＢＣ日興証券は、中国政府が海外団体旅行を半年間禁止したと仮定。日本での中国人旅行客の年間消費額１兆７７００億円のうち、団体が４割弱を占めるとみて、「中国人の旅行支出は２９５０億円程度減少する」と指摘した。特に化粧品・香水、宿泊、飲食、医薬、衣料の品目で影響が大きいとみている。（2020/01/28-07:10）

The outbreak of new pneumonia in China is expected to lower Japan's gross domestic product by 0.14 pct if its effects last for a year, Nomura Research Institute Ltd. has estimated.
   The private think tank said that Japan's GDP will likely be pushed down by 776 billion yen due to a steep drop in the number of tourists to Japan reflecting the spread of the disease caused by a new strain of coronavirus.
   The calculation is based on the effects of the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, in 2003. NRI estimated that visitors to Japan will decrease at the same pace as during the SARS epidemic. The number of inbound travelers now has risen six-fold compared with the pre-SARS level.
   The Dai-ichi Life Research Institute said that the coronavirus outbreak is expected to deflate Japan's nominal GDP by some 483.3 billion yen, some 40 pct more than the amount lost during the SARS epidemic, based on the assumption that the effects of the pneumonia will last for nine months.
   SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. said that travel expenditures by Chinese visitors during their stays in Japan will likely fall by around 295 billion yen, with spending on cosmetics and perfumes, hotels, foods, medicine and clothing seen to be particularly affected.