世界の核兵器数、削減下げ止まり 近代化進む　国際平和研究所

【ストックホルムＡＦＰ＝時事】スウェーデンのストックホルム国際平和研究所（ＳＩＰＲＩ）は１４日、核保有国が核兵器の更新や増強に取り組む中、１９９０年代初頭から続いていた世界の核兵器数の削減傾向が停滞し、一部では増加の兆候も見られるとする年次報告書を発表した。（写真は資料写真）
　ＳＩＰＲＩ核軍縮・軍備管理・核非拡散プログラムのハンス・クリステンセン氏は、「冷戦終結以降われわれが見慣れてきた核兵器数の減少は、横ばいになりつつあるようだ」とＡＦＰに語った。
　ＳＩＰＲＩの推計によると、米国、ロシア、英国、フランス、中国、インド、パキスタン、イスラエル、北朝鮮の９か国は、２０２１年初の時点で計１万３０８０発の核弾頭を保有している。前年初の１万３４００発からは微減となったが、これには解体を待つ核弾頭も含まれており、それらを除くと世界の核弾頭数は９３８０発から９６２０発に増えた。
　また、作戦部隊に配備されている核弾頭数は３７２０発から３８２５発に増加。このうち約２０００発は、数分以内に発射できる「高度?作戦警戒」下に置かれているという。
　クリステンセン氏は「世界中の全ての核保有国で、核兵器の近代化が大々的に行われている」と指摘。さらに、核保有国は「自国の軍事戦略における核兵器の重要性」を高めているようだと述べた。
　この傾向は合わせて世界の核兵器の９０％以上を保有する米国とロシアの両方で見られるが、「他の７か国も全て新兵器を開発・配備しているか、その意向を表明している」という。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】

〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2021/06/15-13:54）

As nuclear nations commit to renewing and sometimes expanding their arsenals, a decline seen since the early 1990s seems to have stalled, with some signs of a numerical increase, researchers said Monday
The reduction of nuclear arsenals that we have gotten used to since the end of the Cold War appears to be levelling out, Hans Kristensen, associate senior fellow at SIPRI's Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Programme, told AFP.
The amount of nukes among the nine nuclear-armed states -- the US, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea -- totalled 13,080 at the start of 2021, a slight decrease from 13,400 a year earlier, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated.
However, this includes retired warheads waiting to be dismantled, and without them the combined military stockpile of nuclear arms rose from 9,380 to 9,620.
Meanwhile, the number of nuclear weapons deployed with operational forces increased from 3,720 to 3,825, the report said.
Of these, some 2,000 were kept in a kept in a state of high operational alert, meaning for launch in a matter of minutes.
We're seeing very significant nuclear modernisation programmes all around the world and in all the nuclear weapons states, Kristensen said.
He added that nuclear states also seem to be raising the importance they attribute to the nuclear weapons in their military strategies.
This change can be observed in both Russia and the United States, which together possess over 90 percent of the world's nuclear weapons, Kristensen said, stressing it was too early to say if the new US administration under President Joe Biden would deviate from the strategy under his predecessor Donald Trump.
I think that the Biden administration is signalling quite clearly that it is going to continue the overwhelming main thrust of the nuclear modernisation programme that was underway during the Trump years, the researcher said, noting the programme was started under Barack Obama.
The US and Russia continued to dismantle retired warheads, but both had about 50 more in operational deployment at the start of 2021 than a year earlier.
At the same time, the New START nuclear arms reduction treaty between the US and Russia was extended for another five years in early 2021, albeit at the last minute.
- Truly in compliance? -
The extension was important to create stability and it was doubly important as other treaties -- such as the INF treaty, banning intermediate and shorter range land based missiles -- have expired.
The report authors said all the other seven nuclear-armed states are also either developing or deploying new weapon systems or have announced their intention to do so.
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) this month reported that nuclear nations increased spending on their arsenals by $1.4 billion (1.2 billon euros) to $72 billion in 2020, even as the pandemic raged.
In August, the parties to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) -- or most countries in the world -- are set to meet in New York for a review held every five years.
Under the treaty nuclear powers commit to pursue negotiations in good faith both on the cessation of the nuclear arms race and nuclear disarmament, but as many are renewing their arsenals, other parties may question their commitment.
The member states of that treaty will rightly be able to ask: 'Are you truly in 'compliance with this treaty?', Kristensen said.
'If you're not, why should we continue to be members to the treaty'.
While we might see a reversal of the trend since the end of the Cold War, Kristensen cautioned there were a lot of uncertainties about where future developments might lead.
Is it just that the reduction phase is over, or are we even going to see an increase because countries might want more weapons, he said, adding that China's growing stockpile may also affect US and Russian readiness to disarm.
The situation during the Cold War was much more intense, added Kristensen.
The number of nuclear weapons peaked at over an estimated 70,000 in 1986.