「８月に緊急事態水準の重症者」　高齢者接種７月完了でも―都内コロナ、西浦氏試算

　新型コロナウイルスワクチンの高齢者への接種が国の目標通り７月末までに完了したとしても、８月に東京都の重症者数が緊急事態宣言を出す水準に達する恐れがあるとの試算を、京都大の西浦博教授（理論疫学）がまとめた。結果は９日の厚生労働省専門家組織の会合に提出された。
　西浦氏は、現在の宣言が２０日に解除された後に、英国型変異株が大阪府で流行した「第４波」と同様の感染拡大が都内で起きると仮定。感染者１人が平均してうつす人数「実効再生産数」を１．７とした。
　重症者用病床（約１２００床）使用率が５割を超えると感染状況が最も深刻な「ステージ４（感染爆発）」に該当するが、使用率７割程度で緊急事態宣言が発令されると想定したところ、８月上旬に発令され、１１月中旬まで続く恐れがあることが判明したという。
　東京五輪は７月２３～８月８日に、東京パラリンピックは８月２４～９月５日に開催される予定だが、試算では五輪開催に伴う人の流れの変化は考慮してない。（2021/06/09-20:39）

Tokyo may need a fresh coronavirus state of emergency in August even if vaccinations of elderly people finish by the end of July as planned, epidemiological analysis showed Wednesday.
   The number of severely ill COVID-19 patients in Tokyo is seen rising to levels in Stage 4, worst on Japan's coronavirus alert scale, if Tokyo exits the current state of emergency June 20 as scheduled and then British and other strains spread as they did in Osaka Prefecture during the fourth wave of infections in spring, according to the analysis by Kyoto University professor Hiroshi Nishiura.
   The results of the analysis were presented at a meeting of a health ministry advisory board. In the analysis, the effective reproduction number, or the average number of people one person infects, was put at 1.7.
   If 50 pct of the hospital beds secured for severely ill patients are occupied, the situation is considered Stage 4. The analysis assumes that a fresh state of emergency will be issued if the occupancy rate reaches around 70 pct.
   Based on the assumption, Tokyo would be placed under the new state of emergency in early August, and the measure would continue until mid-November, according to the analysis.