【解説】米大統領選、勝者確定の流れ　注目州の結果判明はいつ？

【ワシントンＡＦＰ＝時事】米大統領選は3日、ついに投票日を迎えた。既に1億人以上が郵便や投票所で期日前投票を済ませたが、当日もさらに数千万人が投票する見通しで、共和党の現職ドナルド・トランプ大統領と民主党のジョー・バイデン前副大統領のどちらが勝利したかが分かるのは早くても同日夜（日本時間4日午前）になる。（写真は資料写真）
　だが、両候補はこれまで接戦を繰り広げており、勝者の確定は翌日、あるいはもっと後にずれ込む可能性もある。さらには、開票結果をめぐり法廷闘争が繰り広げられる恐れもある。

■最初の開票速報は？
　米大統領選は、候補者が州ごとの勝敗に応じてその州の選挙人を獲得し、過半数の２７０人を得ることで当選する仕組み。
　開票速報は、東部時間の午後６時（日本時間４日午前８時）、２州の一部地域で投票が締め切られた後に出始める。その後、各州で投票が締め切られるにつれ、結果が出そろうことになる。
　日本時間の４日午前１１時までには大半の州で投票が締め切られ、その後順次、開票速報が出される。結果が出る早さは選挙区や州によって異なる。
　投票締め切り時刻は、最大の票田であるカリフォルニアを含む数州では日本時間４日午後１時、有権者数が少ないハワイとアラスカではそれぞれ同２時、３時となっている。

■注目すべき州
　全米５０州のうち３８州では世論調査で勝敗の行方がはっきり示されており、鍵を握るのはその他の１２州だ。
　まず注目すべきなのが、東部のジョージア、フロリダ、ノースカロライナと西部のアリゾナの４州。投票締め切り時刻は、ジョージアが日本時間の４日午前９時、フロリダは地域によって異なり同９～１０時、ノースカロライナは同９時半、アリゾナは同１１時となる。
　勝敗の行方が確実とされる州が予想通りにいったとすると、バイデン氏が上に挙げた４州の中でフロリダとさらに２州を獲得すれば、日本時間の４日昼までに２７０人を超える選挙人を獲得し、当選を確実とする可能性がある。一方、トランプ氏は上の４州すべてを獲得しても、勝利を確実にすることはできない。
　また、当日のトラブルによって結果に遅れが出る可能性もある。ノースカロライナ州の選挙管理委員会は３日午後、技術的問題により４地区での投票時間を延長すると発表。これにより開票結果の発表は少なくとも４５分遅れることとなった。
　最大の激戦区となっているペンシルベニア州の投票締め切り時刻は日本時間４日午前１０時だが、当局は郵便で投じられた大量の票の開票作業に時間がかかることから、結果発表が現地時間の翌日以降になる可能性があると説明。さらにミシガンやウィスコンシンなどの重要州も同じ状況となる可能性がある。
　また、票の再集計や、集計をめぐる法廷闘争が起きる可能性もあり、そうなれば勝者の確定に数日、さらには数週間かかることもあり得る。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2020/11/04-12:32）

US election day is finally here, and 100 million people have already voted by mail or in person.
Millions more were to vote in person on Tuesday, and the winner -- Republican President Donald Trump or Democratic challenger Joe Biden -- won't be known until the evening at the earliest.
But the battle to achieve a majority 270 electoral votes, earned by winning the popular vote in individual states, has been so close that knowing the winner could spill over into Wednesday or even longer, and result in legal battles over the vote count.
- When are the first vote tallies reported? -
Numbers start to come in after in-person voting closes at 6:00 pm Eastern Time (EST) (2300 GMT) in parts of two states, and then build as more states stop allowing votes in the hours after.
Most close by 9:00 pm EST, opening the way for a gusher of vote tallies over the following hours, with some districts and states reporting faster than others.
Several, including California, the largest, only close at 11:00 pm EST, and Hawaii and Alaska, small voter-wise, vote until midnight and 1:00 am EST, respectively.
- States to watch -
Given that opinion polls already indicate clearly which way 38 of the 50 states will go, the focus is on 12 key states.
The first ones to watch are the eastern states of Georgia, where polls close at 7:00 pm; Florida, where, depending on the district, polls shut at 7:00 pm or 8:00 pm; North Carolina where polls close at 7:30 pm; and the western state of Arizona at 8:00 pm EST.
Based on projections for the decided states, it is possible that if Biden captures Florida and two of the above others, he could be judged the overall winner of more than 270 electoral college votes early in the night.
But, using projections, even if Trump wins all of the above four, the overall victor would still be unclear.
- How is the victor decided? -
Officially, the winner of the White House is not decided until every state has certified its vote count which, given delays for mailed-in ballots, could be a week or more in some places.
But the race is typically called by major news organizations on election night, based on their tabulations of reported totals, district by district.
They make a decision on the winner of each state, and finally the entire election, when it appears there is no mathematical way for one candidate to overcome his deficit and the other has a sure path to the magic number of 270 electors.
Ronald Reagan's 1980 landslide victory was called at 8:15 pm EST on election Tuesday (1:15 am GMT Wednesday).
But in 2016, Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton only became clear at about 1:30 am EST Wednesday when tallies showed he had won Pennsylvania. Still, Clinton only conceded an hour later after Wisconsin fell to Trump.
And in 2000, the election came down to who won Florida, where the candidates were divided by a few hundred votes. The two parties battled for weeks legally until the Supreme Court weighed in and halted recounts, handing the election to George W. Bush.
- So, when will Tuesday's result be known? -
It could be 11:00 pm EST or earlier if Biden sweeps the first key states reporting.
If not, the timing will depend on how subsequent key states fall. And that could be drawn out.
In Pennsylvania, the most prized battleground, polls shut at 8:00 pm. But officials say that slow counting of a gusher of mail-in votes could delay the outcome until Wednesday or later.
The same could be true in Michigan, Wisconsin and other key states.
Any possible ballot-by-ballot recounts and lawsuits over the tallies could delay naming the victor for days or even weeks.
- Legal battles -
In fact, both parties have geared up for legal fights in several states where a favorable court judgment could tilt the results one way or another.
In Pennsylvania, Republicans are prepared to litigate a state decision to accept mail-in ballots that arrive up to three days after Tuesday. With Democrats more likely to vote by mail than Republicans, they want those ballots nullified.
In Texas Republicans are seeking to invalidate 127,000 votes in a Democrat stronghold because they took place in drive-thru tents allegedly not permitted under state rules.
And in a heavily Democratic district in Nevada, Republicans have sought to halt the counting of mail-in votes to be able to more closely examine them, with an eye to throw some out.