【解説】異例の王政批判も…タイ民主派デモ、最新情勢と今後の見通し

【バンコクＡＦＰ＝時事】タイ全土でこの3か月間、学生たちが率いる民主派デモが激しさを増している。デモの参加者らは、批判不可能とされてきた王室の改革を求めて異例の声を上げている。（写真は資料写真）
　１５日早朝、政府は非常事態宣言を発令し、４人以上の集会を禁じた。同日、主要な指導者らを含むデモの参加者２０人以上が逮捕された。

■デモ隊の要求は？
　抗議行動に参加している人々はまず、プラユット・チャンオーチャー首相の退陣を求めている。元陸軍司令官のプラユット氏は、２０１４年にクーデターで政権を掌握して以降、５年間にわたって軍事政権を率いた。この軍政下で新憲法が起草され、昨年、新憲法下初の総選挙が実施された。
　この総選挙の結果、プラユット氏は文民政府を率いる首相として選出されたが、これについては新憲法の条項が同氏に有利に働いたと専門家らは指摘している。デモの参加者らは、プラユット氏選出に至る全ての行程が裏切りであると非難し、議会の解散、憲法改正、デモに対する弾圧の中止を求めている。
　さらにデモの参加者らは、強大な力を有する王族を批判からかばう不敬罪の廃止を含む、１０項目の王室改革要求を掲げた。

■なぜ今なのか？
　若者の間で人気のある野党・新未来党の指導者らが政治活動を禁止された２月以降、不満が沸き立っている。デモの参加者の多くは、新未来党の排除は政治的な動機によるものだと非難している。
　新型コロナウイルスのパンデミック（世界的な大流行）によるロックダウン（都市封鎖）は、タイの経済状況を急激に悪化させ、富裕層と貧困層の間にある亀裂を露呈させた。
　さらに今年６月には、カンボジアで亡命生活を送っていたタイの著名な民主活動家ワンチャルーム・サッサクシット氏が失踪した。ツイッター上には、その答えを求める活動家らの抗議が広がった。
　７月半ばになると、ネット上の抗議が現実の抗議デモとなり、タイ全土に波及。９月中旬には、２０１４年のクーデター以降最大規模となる約３万人がデモに参加した。

■過去のデモとの違いは？
　タイでは数十年にわたって、暴力を伴う街頭デモと軍事クーデターが繰り返されている。しかし過去の抗議デモは、経済的・政治的に広大な勢力を背にしていた。
　だが、現在の学生主体の抗議デモの参加者らは、決まった指導者が率いているわけではないと語る。香港の民主化運動に一部感化された戦略だ。またこれまでタブーとされてきた王室について、大胆に取り上げることも初めてだ。

■次には何が？
　１５日に発令された非常事態宣言によって、警察は抗議デモへの関与が疑われるあらゆる人々の身柄を拘束できる権限を手にした。
　宣言発令後、デモの参加者数百人は集会禁止令を無視して集結。チュラロンコン大学の政治評論家、ティティナン・ポンスティラック氏は、現在の状況は「流動的で炎上しやすい」と指摘する。
　逮捕者が出たことで抗議デモは後退したが「人々はとても広く深く不満を抱いているため、衝突は続く」公算が大きいとティティナン氏は述べた。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2020/10/16-16:36）

A student-led pro-democracy movement has gathered pace across Thailand for the past three months, with activists making unprecedented calls for reforms of the kingdom's unassailable monarchy.
More than 20 protesters, including prominent leaders, were arrested Thursday, after the government declared an emergency decree banning gatherings of more than four people.
Tensions flared the previous day as thousands of demonstrators rallied around Democracy Monument before marching on to government house where some camped out overnight.
Here is what we know:
- What do the protesters want? -
The protesters are rallying against the government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha.
The former army chief led a coup in 2014 and kept the kingdom under military rule for five years.
Under the junta, a new constitution was drafted before elections were held last year.
Prayut was voted in to lead a civilian government -- a win analysts say was tilted by the new charter's provisions.
Protesters say the whole process was a stitch-up and are calling for parliament to be dissolved, the constitution rewritten and an end to the harassment they are facing.
They also have a list of 10 demands for the monarchy, including throwing out a defamation law that shields the powerful royal family from criticism.
The law is one of the harshest of its kind in the world, carrying a jail sentence of up to 15 years per charge.
- Why now? -
Discontent has been simmering since February when the leaders of an opposition party, popular among young people, were banned from politics.
Many protesters say the move against the Future Forward Party was politically motivated.
A pandemic lockdown, which sent Thailand's economy into freefall, exposed the chasm between the billionaire class and the poor.
And in June, prominent activist Wanchalearm Satsaksit, who had been living in self-exile in neighbouring Cambodia, disappeared.
Activists in Thailand lit up Twitter with their demands for answers.
The online campaign spilled offline mid-July and a wave of protests across the country began, with up to 30,000 turning out in mid-September for what was the largest gathering since the 2014 coup.
Wednesday's demonstration in particular has drawn the ire of authorities because of the reaction of protesters encountering a royal motorcade.
Some protesters held up the three-fingered salute -- a gesture of defiance the pro-democracy movement has borrowed from the popular Hunger Games books and films -- as the royal motorcade carrying Queen Suthida passed by.
- We've seen Thai protests before. What's different? -
True, Thailand has seen a cycle of violent street protests and military coups over the decades.
But in the past the protest movements had vast financial and political clout behind them.
Today's student demonstrators say there is no single leader -- a strategy partly inspired by the Hong Kong pro-democracy protests.
Daring to take on the taboo topic of the monarchy is also a first.
Under the constitution, the royals -- including super-rich King Maha Vajiralongkorn -- are supposed to stay out of politics, but they wield enormous clout.
Since the king took the throne in 2016, he has made unprecedented changes, taking direct control of the palace's fortune and moving two army units under his command.
At his side are the arch-royalist military and powerful billionaire clans.
- What's the reaction? -
Mixed. The student-led protests have drawn support from a broad demographic, including many from the working class.
The movement has also spread to high schools across the country, with teenagers tying white bows of solidarity in their hair and on backpacks.
But pro-royalist groups have held their own, smaller counter-demonstrations with mostly older protesters enraged at the perceived affront to the monarchy.
- What comes next? -
The emergency decree issued Thursday gives police powers to arrest anyone suspected to be involved in the protests, and also to seize electronic communications equipment, data, and weapons suspected to cause the emergency situation.
But protest leaders vowed to push ahead with a demonstration at Ratchaprasong intersection in downtown Bangkok on the afternoon of October 15.
It's unclear whether this will still go ahead given the arrests of student leaders Parit Penguin Chiwarak, Panusaya Rung Sithijirawattanakul and human rights lawyer Anon Numpa -- the three most prominent figures calling for royal reform.
Political analyst Thitinan Pongsudhirak from Chulalongkorn University says the situation is now fluid and combustible.
While the movement has suffered a setback because of the arrests, it is likely to maintain traction because popular grievances are so wide and deep, Thitinan says.
Repression without any reform will lead to more radicalisation and conflict... This is Thailand's grinding transformation to arrive in the 21st century.
burs-lpm/dhc/rma