パキスタン、なぜかコロナの大流行回避　専門家ら困惑

【ラホールＡＦＰ＝時事】パキスタンで、新型コロナウイルスの感染が確認されてから6か月が経過した。ここ数週間は感染者数が激減しており、最悪の事態は回避できたようだ。人口過密な都市部での感染拡大や、ボロボロの病院が対応できなくなることを恐れていた専門家らは今、感染者数の減少理由が分からず困惑している。（写真はパキスタン・ラホールの市場）
　パキスタンでは当初感染者数が急増したが、現在は減少傾向にあり、死者数も１桁の日が多い。累計の死者数は約６３００人、感染者数は２９万５０００人以上だが、現在１日当たりの新規感染者数は数百人にとどまっている。一方、隣国インドでは、１日当たり数百人が死亡している。
　パキスタン歴代政府は長年、医療分野への資金投入を行わず、ポリオ、結核、肝炎など多くの感染症の食い止めに失敗してきた。
　また、パキスタンでは多くの人が、数世代で同居し、ひしめき合って暮らしている。
　東部ラホールの病院に勤務するサルマン・ハシーブ医師は、「この減少傾向を誰も説明できない…誰も具体的な説明が思い浮かばない」と話した。
　感染の大流行を回避できた理由について、人口が若いこと、高湿度・高気温の気候、根拠のない自然免疫など、さまざまな仮説が飛び交っている。
　新型コロナは、高齢者や基礎疾患のある人が感染すると重症化するリスクが高いことが分かっているが、パキスタンの平均年齢はわずか２２歳だ。一方、イタリアの平均年齢は４６．５歳で、これまでの死者数は３万５０００人を超えている。
　２月に初めて感染が確認されて以来、政府は緩やかなロックダウン（都市封鎖）など制限措置を実施してきた。だが、市民はソーシャルディスタンシング（対人距離の確保）のガイドラインを守らず、市場やモスク（イスラム礼拝所）に集まっていた。
　当局は、先月に感染者数が数週間連続で減少したことを受け、新型コロナに伴うほとんどの規制を解除した。
　レストランや公園が再開し、人々は映画館やショッピングモールに集まり、公共の交通機関にひしめき合って乗っている。学校や大学も９月末には再開予定だ。マスクを着用している人も、ほとんど見かけなくなった。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2020/09/04-15:42）

Six months after the coronavirus arrived in Pakistan, the country appears to have dodged the worst of the pandemic, baffling health experts and dampening fears its crowded urban areas and ramshackle hospitals will be overrun.
Following an initial surge, the number of infections has plummeted in recent weeks, with Covid-19 deaths hovering in the single digits each day, while neighbouring India tallies hundreds of fatalities.
Pakistan has a long history of failing to contain myriad infectious diseases such as polio, tuberculosis and hepatitis, while successive governments have underfunded its healthcare sector for decades.
Added to that, many Pakistanis live in crowded, multi-generational homes or packed apartment buildings that favour rampant virus transmission.
No one has been able to explain this decline... We don't have any concrete explanation, said Salman Haseeb, a doctor at Services Hospital in the eastern city of Lahore.
Pakistanis have proposed numerous hypotheses for their country's seeming ability to weather the pandemic, crediting everything from the young population and the hot and humid climate to unproven claims of natural immunity.
Its median age is only 22 and the coronavirus is known to disproportionately impact older people with prior health complications.
In comparison, Italy, with a median age of 46.5, has recorded more than 35,000 deaths, while Pakistan's official toll is about 6,300.
To date, the South Asian nation has confirmed more than 295,000 infections and currently is recording a few hundred new cases per day.
Observers say that with only limited testing the true number of infections is likely considerably higher. One testing exercise in Lahore suggested as many as seven percent of the city's population had been exposed to the virus.
But anecdotal evidence from hospitals across Pakistan supports the downward trend.
While healthcare facilities were initially swamped, doctors across Pakistan told AFP they are now no longer seeing a coronavirus-related rush on emergency services.
Regardless of the reasons, the good thing is the first wave of the virus is almost over in Pakistan, said Khizer Hayat, a doctor at Nishtar hospital in the central city of Multan.
The situation is now under control and the number of coronavirus cases is dropping, the wards are emptying. It's hard to know why.
- 'Smart' lockdowns -
A flattening curve is all the more curious considering how the coronavirus has hit India, which with a median age of 26 and crowded cities has a somewhat similar demographic.
Over the weekend, India set a new global record for the highest number of daily cases, with 78,761 new infections recorded in 24 hours, though Delhi is testing at a far higher rate than Islamabad.
India has also reported more than 64,000 deaths -- the third-highest globally after the United States and Brazil.
Since recording its first case in late February, Pakistan has responded in fits and bursts to the pandemic, rolling out loose lockdowns that were later reversed, while crowds shunned social distancing guidelines and continued to flock to markets and mosques.
Still, the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan has been quick to bask in the progress, crediting itself with smart lockdown policies and other measures, even though these were often not enforced.
Last month, Pakistani authorities lifted most of the country's remaining coronavirus restrictions after new cases dropped for several weeks.
Restaurants and parks have reopened while people have flocked to theatres, malls, and crowded back onto public transport. Schools and universities are set to reopen later in September.
Masks have become an increasingly rare sight, spurring warnings from experts for the public to remain vigilant over fears of a second wave.
People think we have defeated Covid-19 but my belief is that the chances of the second wave are still there, warned Hassan Waseem, a microbiologist based in Pakistan.
However, other doctors suspect the country has experienced the peak of the pandemic.
I would reluctantly say that there won't be a second wave in Pakistan. Most urban centres in Pakistan like Lahore and Karachi have already seen the worst when it comes to coronavirus, said Waheed Uz Zaman Tariq, head of the department of virology and infectious diseases at Chughtai Lab.
People must also understand that (the virus) is not completely gone, he added. Precautions must be taken still.