長引く貿易摩擦で貧困拡大　中所得国から後退の国も　世銀

【ワシントンＡＦＰ＝時事】世界銀行のチーフエコノミスト、ピネロピ・コウジャノウ・ゴールドバーグ氏は8日、AFPのインタビューに対し、長引く世界の貿易対立が投資を抑制し、その影響で経済成長が滞り、貧困が拡大する恐れがあるとの考えを示した。同氏の指摘は、経済が成長しなければ「不可避的に人々は苦しむことになる」というものだ。（写真はAFPの取材に応じた世界銀行チーフエコノミスト、ピネロピ・コウジャノウ・ゴールドバーグ氏。米首都ワシントンで）
　米国と中国の二国間貿易は数千億ドル以上の規模に上っており、両国の貿易戦争は世界的な貿易問題の中心となっている。だが、米国は貿易をめぐり欧州連合ともあつれきがある他、カナダおよびメキシコとの貿易協定も改定している。英国のＥＵ離脱（ブレグジット）も世界経済の不安材料だ。
　不確実性の広がりによる投資の減少は、特にアフリカなど貧困地域の成長をむしばんでいる。「これは貧困から抜け出せない国が出てくるということを意味する」とコウジャノウ・ゴールドバーグ氏は話し、「それだけではない。どうにかして貧困から抜け出して中所得国となった国々が、再び貧困国に逆戻りする可能性すら意味するものだ」と続けた。
　コウジャノウ・ゴールドバーグ氏は、「私たちの大半は（米中の）貿易摩擦は一時的な現象で、今頃は解消されていると思っていた。だが、貿易摩擦は時間と共にエスカレートした」と述べる。
　■グローバル・バリュー・チェーン
　世界銀行は８日に公表した報告書で、貿易摩擦が悪化した場合、「（さらに）３０００万人以上が貧困に陥る可能性がある」と警告している。世界銀行は１日５．５０ドル（約５９０円）未満での生活が貧困と定義している。報告書によるとこれは、世界的に見て１兆４０００億ドル（約１５０兆円）の所得損失に等しいという。
　だが、グローバル・バリュー・チェーンへの参加を決めれば、貿易が貧困から抜け出す頼み綱となるとコウジャノウ・ゴールドバーグ氏は説明する。グローバル・バリュー・チェーンとは、企業が複数国にまたがって財・サービスの供給・調達を行う経済活動だ。
　発展途上国にとってグローバル・バリュー・チェーンは、最終製品を製造する先端技術や技術を必要としない付加価値の低い一種類の部品を製造することで、世界市場進出の足掛かりができるという利点がある。
　多くの国が、単純でシンプルな部品から付加価値の高い製品の製造に少しずつ移行して来た。コウジャノウ・ゴールドバーグ氏によると、中でも韓国とポーランドは比較的短期間に、非常に簡単な製造から技術イノベーションを必要とする経済活動に移行できたという。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2019/10/10-09:17）

As global trade tensions persist, investments are put on hold and without that cash to boost economic growth, poverty could surge, the World Bank's chief economist warned Tuesday.
Without growth inevitably, people will struggle, Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg said in an interview with AFP.
The US-China trade war -- involving hundreds of billions of dollars in two-way trade -- is at the center of global disputes that also include Washington's friction with the European Union, changing rules over US trade with Canada and Mexico, and Brexit.
Amid the uncertainty, investments have declined, which undermines growth, especially in poor regions like Africa.
This means that some countries will never manage to get out of poverty, said Koujianou Goldberg, who has joint US-Greek nationality.
But it also means countries that have managed to lift themselves out of poverty, that have become middle income countries by now, they may revert, they may go backwards.
Koujianou Goldberg said it is a particular concern for Africa, where poverty is concentrated and economies are more fragile -- but also where debt levels are higher than ever, increasing the risk of a financial crisis.
The World Bank and International Monetary Fund are among forecasters who have cut projections for growth this year and next, and the trade wars have continued and even worsened in recent months.
Many of us thought the trade tensions were a temporary phenomenon, that they would have gone away by now. But instead, they have escalated over time, she said.
- 'Global value chains' -
The World Bank released a report Tuesday warning that if the trade conflict worsens more than 30 million people could be pushed into poverty (measured as income levels below $5.50 a day).
That equates to a drop in global income of as much as $1.4 trillion, the report said.
But trade continues to provide a lifeline to pull countries out of poverty, Koujianou Goldberg said, if policymakers take steps to plug into worldwide production linkages knows as global value chains.
These production links involve parts and components going back and forth across borders to finally produce finished goods for sale.
The advantage for less developed countries is that they can step onto the production ladder with just one component, without needing the advanced technology and skills to manufacture a finished product.
And little by little -- and many countries have managed to do that -- you can climb up the value chain, you can transition from producing very simple parts to producing more sophisticated parts, she said.
That increases productivity and boosts economic growth.
These links expanded rapidly prior to the global financial crisis, accounting for nearly half of trade worldwide, but the report says the growth has slowed or even dipped in the years since.
The World Bank is urging countries to focus on reforms that allow them to tap into these global value chains. For the least developed economies, that could be as simple as improving logistics to reduce log jams for goods at the border, she said.
For middle income economies, it is improvements in roads and ports and joining free trade agreements to ensure trade across countries is frictionless.
Your strategy really depends on your stage of development.
South Korea and Poland have managed in a relatively short period of time to transition from very simple manufacturing to innovation-intensive activities.
Mexico had success early on with auto manufacturing but then got stuck, Koujianou Goldberg said, partly because of a conscious decision to not invest in education and training in order to keep wages low.
If you try to keep wages low forever, and you don't invest in your people, eventually you'll be stuck, she said.