増税でも遠い財政再建＝社保費増大に追い付かず－消費税

　政府は消費税増税などにより、２０１９年度の国の一般会計税収を過去最大の６２．５兆円と見込む。一方、社会保障費や防衛費の増加で同年度の一般会計予算は１０１．５兆円と膨れ上がり、借金依存の体質は変わらない。高齢化に伴う社会保障費の増大に税収の伸びが追い付かず、財政再建へ道筋は見えない。
　消費税収が税収全体に占める割合は、導入当初の６％（１９８９年度）から３１％（１９年度見込み）に増加。１０％への引き上げにより、２０年度には所得税を抜いて最も大きな税収源となる見通しだ。
　政府は、政策経費をどれだけ税収で賄えているかを示す基礎的財政収支（ＰＢ）を２０２５年度に黒字化させる目標を掲げる。しかし、内閣府の試算では消費税増税による歳入増を見込んだ上で、名目３％以上の高い経済成長を想定しても２５年度のＰＢは赤字だ。
　政府は年金、医療、介護などの制度改革を議論する「全世代型社会保障検討会議」を９月に立ち上げた。ただ、財政健全化に関しては「財政のみの視点で社会保障を切ることは全く考えていない」（西村康稔経済再生担当相）。「痛み」を伴う歳出削減に踏み込むかは不透明と言える。
　安倍晋三首相は１０％超への消費税増税について「今後１０年くらいは必要がない」と述べている。このまま借金を積み重ねて将来世代に負担を回すのか、あくまで「アベノミクス」の推進で大幅な税収増を目指すのか。政権の姿勢が問われる。（2019/10/02-07:11）

The Japanese government can hardly meet its fiscal consolidation target although the consumption tax rate was eventually raised from 8 pct to 10 pct on Tuesday.
   The tax increase will help the government's general-account tax revenue reach a record 62.5 trillion yen for fiscal 2019. But at the same time its general-account expenditures are estimated to swell to 101.5 trillion yen for the year ending next March due to growth in social security and defense outlays.
   As the government needs to keep relying on debut issues to cover ever-rising costs to cope with the rapidly aging population, it cannot achieve its goal of turning the primary balance into the black in fiscal 2025 even with the 10 pct consumption tax, the biggest revenue source, and annual economic growth of at least 3 pct in terms of nominal gross domestic product, according to a Cabinet Office estimate.
   The latest consumption tax hike, expected to raise tax revenue by about 5.7 trillion yen a year, is not enough if the government wants to realize not only the primary balance surplus but a stable social security system, some pundits said.
   But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe already said in July that another hike in the tax "will be unnecessary over the next 10 years," preventing the government's Tax Commission from proposing more hikes in its midterm report released in September.