短観予測、製造業景況感横ばい 海外減速が重し―民間16社
日銀が来月1日に発表する9月の全国企業短期経済観測調査(短観)に関する民間シンクタンクなど16社の予測が、24日までに出そろった。企業の景況感を示す業況判断指数(DI)は大企業製造業でおおむね横ばいを見込む。自動車生産や半導体需要の回復による押し上げ期待がある一方、中国をはじめとする海外の景気減速などが重しとなり、足踏み傾向が続くと予想した。(2024/09/24-16:53)
BOJ Tankan Likely to Show Flat Sentiment DI for Big Makers
The Bank of Japan's "tankan" quarterly survey for September, due out Oct. 1, will show no change in major Japanese manufacturers' business sentiment, according to forecasts by think tanks.
Recoveries in automobile production and semiconductor demand are believed to have been offset by slowdowns in foreign economies, such as China, the 16 research institutes pointed out.
According to their average estimate, the September tankan's headline diffusion index for large manufacturers' current business conditions will stand at plus 13, unchanged from the June reading.
The resumption of vehicle production by Toyota Motor Corp. and some other major Japanese automakers has failed to push up the DI because the fallout from the output halt due to type approval test frauds has lingered, the NLI Research Institute added.
The think tanks' average projection for leading nonmanufacturers' current sentiment DI came to plus 32, down one point.
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