2024.02.29 20:04Nation

現状維持なら先進国最低に 60年の1人当たりGDP―内閣府試算


2024.02.29 20:04Nation

Japan May Have Lowest GDP among Major Economies in 2060

Japan will have the lowest real gross domestic product per capita among all major economies in 2060 if its low productivity growth remains roughly the same under a declining population, a government estimate showed Thursday.
   Presented at the day's meeting of the Council on Economic and Fiscal Policy, headed by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the estimate is part of a macroeconomic scenario drawn up by the Cabinet Office for use in discussions on priority issues in the country's economic and fiscal policies.
   The estimate supposes that Japan's annual productivity growth rate will stay at 0.5 pct, similar to levels in recent years, and that the total fertility rate, or the number of children born per woman in her lifetime, will stand around 1.36 in 2070, against 1.33 in 2020. The Cabinet Office also hypothesizes that more elderly people will join the workforce.
   The scenario envisions a long period of sluggish economic growth, forecasting that Japan's GDP in price-adjusted real terms will grow at an average rate of 0.2 pct between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2060.
   Real GDP per capita, which stood at 41,000 dollars in 2020, will be 62,000 dollars in 2060, likely to be overtaken by Britain and France, which both had smaller per capita GDPs than Japan as of 2020.