世界情勢、過去数十年で「最も複雑」 ＷＥＦ総裁

【天津（中国）ＡＦＰ＝時事】世界経済フォーラム（ＷＥＦ）のボルゲ・ブレンデ総裁は２４日、ＡＦＰに対し、現在の世界情勢は過去数十年で「最も複雑な」地政学的状況にあり、この混乱が「世界経済の成長に影響を及ぼしている」と警告した。（写真は、中国天津で世界経済フォーラム〈ＷＥＦ〉「ニュー・チャンピオン年次総会〈夏季ダボス会議〉」開幕を前に、ＡＦＰのインタビューに応じるＷＥＦ会長兼ＣＥＯのボルゲ・ブレンデ氏）
　ブレンデ氏は中国北部・天津で２４日に始まったＷＥＦの「ニュー・チャンピオン年次総会（夏季ダボス会議）」を前に発言。「現在、われわれが目にしているのは、過去数十年で最も複雑な地政学的・地経学的背景だ」とし、「もしも成長を回復させることができなければ、今後１０年にわたって低成長が続く可能性がある」と警鐘を鳴らした。
　今回の夏季ダボス会議は直前にイラン・イスラエル紛争の勃発とそれに対する米国の関与があり、またドナルド・トランプ米大統領が開始した関税戦争によって世界経済が打撃を受けてきた状況を背景としている。
　ブレンデ氏はＡＦＰに対し、トランプ政権による一連の関税措置の影響について「交渉はまだ進行中で、これらの関税が最終的にどうなるのかを語るには時期尚早だ」としつつ、「結論はまだ出ていないと思うが、これまで見てきた伝統的なグローバリゼーションは、すでに別のシステムへと変化している。それは新たな章の始まりであり、とりわけ貿易こそが成長の原動力だったことを考えると、重要な転換だ」と語った。
　さらにブレンデ氏は、拡大する国際紛争が世界経済の成長に「非常に深刻な悪影響」を及ぼす恐れがあるとも警告した。【翻訳編集ＡＦＰＢＢＮｅｗｓ】
〔ＡＦＰ＝時事〕（2025/06/24-16:40）

The world is facing the most complex geopolitical situation seen in decades, the head of the World Economic Forum (WEF) told AFP Tuesday, warning that turmoil was impacting global growth.
It is the most complex geopolitical and geo-economic backdrop we've seen in decades, WEF President and CEO Borge Brende said ahead of a meeting of the multilateral forum in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin.
If we are not able to revive growth again, we can unfortunately see a decade of lower growth, he warned.
Officials including Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong will attend this week's WEF meeting in the port city of Tianjin -- known colloquially as the Summer Davos.
The meeting comes hard on the heels of the United States' involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict and follows months in which the global economy has been battered by a tariff war launched by US President Donald Trump.
This month, the World Bank cut its forecast for global growth this year from 2.7 percent to 2.3 percent, following a similar reduction by the International Monetary Fund.
Brende told AFP it was still too soon to predict the impact of Trump's swingeing tariffs.
It is too early to say what these tariffs will end with because the negotiations are still ongoing, he said.
I think the jury is still out, but the traditional globalisation we saw is now changed into a different system, he said.
That is a new chapter... especially since trade was the engine of growth.
Brende also warned mounting conflict could have a very negative impact on global growth.
- 'China matters' -
The WEF gathering in Tianjin comes at an uncertain juncture for the Chinese economy, which has struggled under a years-long property sector crisis and sluggish domestic spending.
China really does matter, Brende said, adding he expects the country to account for almost 30 percent of global growth this year.
China is pivoting its economy more towards digital trade, towards services and also now opening up for increasing domestic consumption -- something that is important, Brende said.
Officials in Beijing have since late last year unveiled a string of aggressive measures including key rate cuts and cancellations of home purchasing restrictions.
But many economists remain sceptical that the Chinese economy can achieve the government's official growth target for this year of around five percent.
With the tumultuous trade war threatening shipments from the manufacturing powerhouse, Beijing is looking to emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence as potential sources of future growth.
In the past, trade was the driver of growth, but you cannot exclude that new technologies including AI can... maybe replace the important role that trade had, Brende told AFP.
While trade will remain very important, he said, disruptive technologies can provide the productivity boost needed to avoid a decade of sluggish growth.
Attendees bustled around a cavernous conference hall in Tianjin on Tuesday ahead of talks with a lineup of speakers that includes former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang is expected to deliver a keynote speech on Wednesday.